We love Vieux Château Certan

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-10-09


As we’ve written here before, we love Vieux Chateau Certan and we’re not the only ones. The wine has always been great, but it just seems to get better and better. The ’78 recently was sublime. It seems to be quite vintage proof too, producing a highly rated 2011 (96-8 points, Neal Martin), which we have commented on before (here). Neal’s comments on the ’04 also resonate: “this is a triumph of wine over vintage”.

So, a great wine with a limited production from 14 hectares of Pomerol, a popular family as owners, a rising reputation and prices that are manageable (in the context of very fine wine). A wine trade legend recently commented “I can’t understand why every vintage of VCC doesn’t start at £200 per bottle”.The vineyard is next to Cheval Blanc and like the St. Emilion Grand Cru Classé A powerhouse has a lot of the vineyard given over to Cabernet Franc. It is planted 60% Merlot, 30% Cabernet Franc and 10% Cabernet Sauvignon and the Chateau is not scared of big selection decisions for the grand vin to achieve the best results - the ’98, for example, was 90% Merlot. For the sake of comparison, Petrus covers 11.5 hectares and is 100% Merlot.

Here are the bottle prices of various older vintages (’95 - ‘06) with WO scores:

Vieux Chateau Certan - Market Price versus Score - Wine Owners

1998 was a brilliant right bank vintage and it stands out as such. 2000 was also excellent across the board and as a result, it is more homogenous in its appeal. It is interesting to note that these older vintages are much cheaper than the (admittedly higher rated) younger versions, (’08-’16 below). Whilst on ratings, there is no doubt VCC has been achieving greater things, but wine critic’s scores have also been on the up in the last decade, meaning a modern day 97 feels more like a 93 or 94 from the noughties.

I prefer older vintages because of the faster falling supply and favour the ’98 over the ’00 for investment purposes, just. Some outright value can be found in the ’04 at a little over £100 a bottle;

NM writes: “Alexandre Thienpont having to pass through the vineyard six times in order to pick the grapes. It was worthwhile because this is one of the outstanding wines of the vintage, driven by the Cabernet Franc (30%). A delectable nose with wonderful purity and exuberant, peppery Cabernet Franc with touches of tar and roasted chestnuts inflected the black fruits. Superb. Drink 2015-2030+.”

Here are the Relative Value scores for the older selection:


Vieux Chateau Certan - Relative Value Score - Wine Owners

And now for younger vintages:

Vieux Chateau Certan - Market price VS. Score - Wine Owners

In the younger vintages, the ’11 stands out. I have edited the scores just to use Neal Martin’s 96-8 score as we believe the other critics, especially Monsieur Parker, have clearly missed the beauty of this wine which is commonly touted as the wine of the vintage. NM: “It has enormous length and it is one of the very few that could be on the same ethereal plateau as the 2009 and 2010 and perhaps one day...even better”

The other notable characteristic of 2011 is that 30% Cabernet Franc made it into the final blend, and was the last vintage that had such a high Cab Franc component prior to 2018. That means more floral and aromatic character. Given VCC can often be obdurate in youth and middle age, we like vintages like 2011.

Don’t imagine either that 2011 was a poor year climatically for VCC – the numbers tell a different story: high IPT of 83, moderate alcohol at 13.6 degrees, and a relatively low in acid PH of 3.6. All of which is borne out in the glass - plenty of stuffing for a very long drinking window, finesse, lovely balance and moderate alcohol. With LMHB the wine of the vintage.

The ’09 and ’10 receive massive scores from Mr. Parker, noticeably higher than his colleagues. ’15 and ’16 receive massive scores across the board but, as mentioned earlier, scores ain’t what they used to be! The less fashionable ’12 and ’14 vintages offer value with ’15 and ’16 looking fully priced for now although leading the way in terms of a re-rating perhaps? They are the most expensive vintages on the market.

Vieux Chateau Certan - Relative Value Score - Wine Owners

VCC does not deserve to trade at such crazy discounts to Petrus, Le Pin and Lafleur. The ’16 vintage is used as an example below.

Vieux Chateau Certan - Market Price Vs. Score - Wine Owners
On the other hand, it provides an excellent opportunity to access a top terroir of Bordeaux in some of the best wine-making hands at ‘reasonable’ prices, certainly at a fraction of Petrus and Le Pin.

The last ten vintages of Petrus average a score of 96 points and a price of £2,333 per bottle against an average of 95.9 points and £151 for VCC. Put another way, you can drink nearly fifteen and a half bottles of VCC for every one of Petrus. Surely that’s enough to get you thinking!?


Please see live offers of VCC on the platform here. Other vintages are available, so please speak to Miles or Luke MacWilliam.

N.B. A new platform feature – there is no need to type out Vieux Chateau Certan any more – typing VCC will do the job.


Miles Davis, 11th October 2019. Professional Portfolio Management.

miles.davis@wineowners.com

07798 732 543


Is it time to hit the bottle?

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-10-08


At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the market mood is sombre. It does, however, remain reasonably steady amidst a turbulent sea of macro factors.

Hong Kong is an important market for wine and the ongoing protests are a concern. The original cause of complaint, an extradition agreement between the territory and the Chinese mainland, has long since been retracted but the protests continue, becoming ever more violent. This is about democracy and freedom and the eyes of the world are watching. It is an uncomfortable position for China who cannot afford to handle the situation as perhaps it might in its own provinces but in the long term, remains a very powerful parent. Already the economic effects are being felt; officially occupancy rates in Hong Kong hotels are currently running at about 20%, unofficially they are in single digits. A quick internet search found a room in the territory for US$9 a night, including breakfast!

As we know, Hong Kong, apart from having its own burgeoning wine scene, is currently the gateway to the wine market of China, legally or otherwise. We expect China will open new free ports in time, but the current troubles may just accelerate that process. We think this is a short term problem but in the meantime, trade form that corner of the world is quiet.

U.S./China trade negotiations and Brexit shenanigans continue, and emerging markets are threatened by contagion emanating from Argentina. Thrown in the unrest in various parts of the Middle East and various other more localised scenarios, it’s a right old mess. And what does well in right old messes – physical assets! Here is the Gold price performance so far this year against the WO 150 index.

WO 150 - Gold price performance

We’re not saying there is any correlation, delayed or otherwise, between wine and gold but recent financial history (since the last global financial crisis) has made physical and alternative assets increasingly popular.

We live in an era of negative real interest rates, where buyers of roughly a third of the world’s outstanding bonds will lose money if held to maturity and where even high yielding equities with strong balance sheets are not performing – all very sobering! With all this going on, is it time to hit the bottle?

Within the wine world, my investment themes remain the same; focus on regional allocation, combined with scarcity and relative value is the game.

Please contact miles.davis@wineowners.com with any questions.


Wine Market Investment Report August 2019

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-09-09


August was much like July with summer holidays being the prime concern for most people. The wider market has felt quiet, maybe because the Bordeaux market is still largely flat, but there are definitely pockets of excitement about and the broad-based Wine Owners Index was up 0.9%. Trade was brisk with Piedmont, Tuscany and Champagne dominating turnover at Wine Owners.

The solid, relative value investment case for the wines of Piedmont has created demand which, in turn, has led to us step up our sourcing efforts. Liquidity is tight, obviously one of the plus points in the investment case, but we have managed to unearth some lovely parcels, particularly some legendary Bartolo Mascarello vintages.

Sterling has remained weak due to the Brexit shenanigans, and this has finally translated into some positive moves for various wine indices. As we know, a weaker pound generally leads to increased demand in the sterling denominated secondary fine wine market, especially from U.S.$ based buyers. Little has come out of Asia, however, as continuing rhetoric surrounding the U.S./China trade wars rumble on and Hong Kong is still suffering from the most vocal political protests in its modern history. They (the people of Honk Kong) have even appealed to Mr. Trump to help!

The largest region within the wine market will always be Bordeaux and it is business in the wines of Bordeaux that is suffering the most from these continuing issues. Many of the other top wine regions are less affected by these global events and market conditions as the wines are less traded, and the supply and demand ratio in a different place. Bordeaux has been looking cheap versus its peers for some time now, and there’s a lot of bad news in the price but the stars need to start aligning. This can and will happen, but when is the big question!


Wine Market Investment Report July 2019

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-08-20


A brief and holiday interrupted report for activity in July

The wine market continues to hold its breath. Boris fulfils (what somehow now feels like) his destiny and moves into Number 10 and the pound plummets. It has since recovered a bit but even so, the wine market didn't flinch. As we know, a weaker pound generally leads to increased demand in the sterling denominated secondary fine wine market, especially from U.S.$ based buyers, but maybe not during the hot days of summer? Certainly not when the U.S./China trade wars rumble on, the rhetoric becoming ever stronger, and most definitely not when Hong Kong explodes into the most violent scenes of pro-democracy protest in its modern history. The Brexit backdrop adds to the confusion, so no wonder little happens.

The largest market within wine will always be Bordeaux and it is business in the wines of Bordeaux that is suffering the most from this continued malaise. Many of the other top wine regions are less affected by these global events and market conditions as the wines are more scarce, with the supply and demand ratio is in a different place. Bordeaux has been looking cheap versus its peers for some time now, but the stars need to start aligning. This can and will happen, but when is the big question!

Despite these almost stagnant overtones, trade has never been brisker with July setting a record level of turnover. Numbers of users, bids and offers forever grow. Collectors looking to trim positions have been well accommodated by others adding and reorganising their cellars, something we are seeing a lot more of.

Burgundy continues to look for its feet, Champagne and Super Tuscans gently hum along nicely, and we’ve seen a little demand for some of the new world too.

Here at Wine Owners, Barolo dominated trading in July. Many vintages of Bartolo Mascarello changed hands, also many Bruno Giacosas, Riservas and otherwise. Fratelli Alessandria becomes ever more popular, as does Luciano Sandrone. And there were some big-ticket trades in Monfortino and Ca d’Morissio.


Miles Davis, 20th August 2019
miles.davis@wineowners.com


The Wine Market Investment Report - June 2019

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-07-08


The highlight in June for the wine world was clearly the Daily Telegraph event ‘Wine; for profit or pleasure?’. A sell out crowd witnessed excellent talks from four leading experts from the wine world, including two of us from Wine Owners (Miles and Nick). Please contact us for a copy of the presentation.

Otherwise June was again tranquil with trade bobbing along just fine but with no particular surges or dips anywhere. Global stock markets enjoyed a rise after Messrs. Trump and Xi found some accord but this doesn’t seem to have inspired the wine market as yet! Wine stock levels are healthy amongst Asian traders so not even a continuing depressed sterling is bringing about much marginal demand from that corner although most indices are in positive territory in June.

The Bordeaux en primeur campaign came to an end with an almighty whimper. En primeur gets under the skin of the wine trade and all involved spend far too much time talking, writing and moaning about it…yet even so, I shall continue! Within the wine market(s) it has represented very poor relative value for a decade, prices are just too high, yet merchants don’t dare turn their back on this once great provider. It was a great system for all involved, including the man on the street. Now only a very few wines ‘work’ each year (whereby they make sense to the supply chain and the end buyer). And now, to compound the problems of high prices, the Chateaux have decided to retain more and more of their own stock. How this comes to market, when and at what price will fuel debate but based on the evidence of the mighty Chateau Latour, the market may just turn its back. The feeling of stock overhang may easily outweigh the feeling of short supply and it’s not as if the world is going to go thirsty, there will always be alternative choices.

If only our Italian friends came together with a synchronised offering, we could have a proper old school primeur market again. All the market players would have to be involved at the same time, jostling for position, scrapping over every six pack and would still be able to sell at a price that would make everyone happy. The hype that the merchants used to create in Bordeaux primeur markets, that we are still hungover from, could be regenerated. We all miss the hype and the excitement which created such fear amongst the white-faced, panic-stricken collectors and consumers who couldn’t possibly stand even the faintest whiff of FOMO (fear of missing out). 

As it is, Italian releases come to market in no organised way and importers and merchants release when they feel like it. It’s all very Italian really but it does make buying easier. We have been acquiring some 2015 Barolo new releases from Fratelli Alessandria, whose reputation is markedly on the up. Prices are very reasonable for these high scoring wines, ranging from c.£35 per bottle for their basic Barolo (94 Wine Advocate points) to nearer £60 for their top cru, Monvigliero (96+). Outside of the very top group, Luciano Sandrone is another producer worth mentioning - consistently high scores at affordable prices. Their equivalents in quality in either Bordeaux or Burgundy would be far more expensive.

Piedmont is easily our favourite region at the moment, due to the demand/supply equation and the blue chips remain well bid. Whilst Bordeaux and Burgundy remain lacklustre, Champagne and Rhone have attracted some attention. There is no question we would recommend the brilliant 2008 vintage in Champagne and the recently released Sir Winston Churchill looks a good bet with the ’96 being double the price.

Please see the Blog for more articles about the wine investment market.

Also, any enquiries about my Professional Portfolio Management services are most welcome.

Miles Davis

8th July 2019

miles.davis@wineowners.com


La Rioja Alta Gran Reserva 904 - A refreshing release!

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-06-10


Today we see the release of the 2010 La Rioja Alta Gran Reserva 904. At £195 per six and with years of maturation already in the bank, this wine represents terrific value, especially when compared to some of the recent en primeur releases from further north (Bordeaux). The 2010 has an absolutely massive Wine Owner’s Relative Value Score of 111, (see chart attached). Tim Atkin awards 97 points and comments “Savoury wild herb notes segue into a palate that's focused, balanced and graceful with the concentration and backbone to age. 2019-35”.

Purely from an investment perspective these wines only appreciate in price quite some time after release, when scarcity starts to kick in as demonstrated here with the excellent 2001 vintage (attached).

Conclusion: buy with a view to drinking but see what happens!

La Rioja 2018 Bordeaux en primeur - Wine Owners - Market price versus score


La Rioja 2018 Bordeaux en primeur - Wine Owners


The May 2019 Wine Investment Market Report

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-06-07


The wine market in May was completely dominated by Bordeaux en primeur. Overall the market is steady but lacklustre, ongoing concerns over U.S. and China trade wars and boring old Brexit rumble on and even a weaker GBP hasn’t managed to inspire substantially more marginal demand from USD based buyers. The secondary blue chip Bordeaux market is solid but a little stodgy. The bids are there but nothing much is moving north. As a result it is little surprise that merchants’ 2018 Bordeaux offers, backed by some exuberant critic’s reports and scores, have been flooding the inbox.

For our Bordeaux 2018 ‘in a nutshell’ report on the 2018 vintage, please click here.

Obviously the more exuberant critic reports and scores, of which there are (too?) many, have been the ones used by merchants and their sales teams. Julia Harding MW, of JancisRobinson.com, provided the reviews most in common with our own team’s appraisal and her scores are more subdued than others. She lends perspective to a vintage that we do not regard as highly as 2016 and one that may turn out to be overblown in some quarters. Antonio Galloni of Vinous Media is another commentator in the less exuberant camp and we look forward to his colleague Neal Martin’s commentary when it arrives (Neal did not taste en primeur this year due to ill health – we wish him a full and speedy recovery).

A very important point regarding the ’18 vintage, largely ignored by the salesmen and one I would like to repeat, is that whilst certain wines are very impressive, incredibly concentrated yet well balanced, they are really, really BIG. Nearly all of the alcohol numbers are between 14 and 15%. The poor unsuspecting punters may get quite a shock when they sit down, sometime from now, to enjoy their excellent claret only to discover they have something they weren’t quite expecting in their glass!

It'll be fascinating to see how the wines from 2018 develop as wines, but also from a market perspective. The Chateaux are holding back more and more wine every year and in some cases, releases are up to 50% lower than last year. Will this drive some scarcity seekers to market or will it have the opposite effect of creating a nervy overhang? It is fair to say that so far, Latour has not exactly flourished since retreating from the age old system. En primeur to my mind, apart from a certain few every year, has not made clear financial sense for years and few releases have come close to our ‘proto-prices’ (where the price needs to be to make clear financial sense to buyers), more here on JancisRobinson.com.

Successful releases so far include: Calon Segur, Canon, Carmes Haut Brion, Lafleur, La Mission Haut Brion, Leoville Las Cases, Pichon Lalande, Pontet Canet and Rauzan Segla. The majority of releases have not sold through.

In other areas there is still plenty of demand for high end Burgundy, it’s just that the prices that are being achieved by sellers are well below advertised levels. Piedmont is in good health but in low supply, a good thing for holders! Champagne holds firm, so do Super Tuscans.


Focus on: Krug 2004

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-04-30


Research does not come any easier than looking at Krug 2004. Vintage Krug is an investment stalwart and the long-term numbers tell us it is a consistent performer. So, you key in the various available vintages into Wine Owners ‘Relative Value Analysis’ and ’04 comes out as THE pick of the bunch:

Krug Relative Value Analysis Wine Owners

Then you read the tasting note from Antoni Galloni:

Krug's 2004 Vintage is absolutely mesmerizing. Layers of bright, chiseled fruit open up effortlessly as the wine fleshes out with time in the glass. Persistent and beautifully focused, with a translucent sense of energy, the 2004 captures all the best qualities of the year. Moreover, the 2004 is clearly superior to the consistently underwhelming 2002 and the best Krug Vintage since 1996. Readers who can find it should not hesitate, as it is a magical bottle. 97+

Simples! But, as ever, it is not quite as simple as that; if we compare the returns over the last twelve months, performance across the vintages is far from consistent:


1996 7.50%
1998 -0.90%
2000 19.80%
2002 2.30%
2003 12.50%
2004 -6.00%

Krug price graph Wine Owners

It is difficult to explain the variances, especially the ‘98 but I take heart that the 2004 is yet to perform positively. It was a decent size crop and clearly there are plenty of merchants still holding their allocation but this means there is still time to accumulate before it starts appreciating – and it most certainly will! This is a buy on a long term basis.


Why invest in wine? A potted history of the wine investment market part 1 (Feb. 2015)

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-03-25


The basic premise for investing in fine wine is a very simple one; you buy a truly great wine that is produced in a finite quantity and store it, carefully. So, whilst others are enjoying/drinking theirs, thereby reducing the supply of that wine, you enjoy the price appreciation that naturally results from the increased rarity value. The growth in global wealth and newly discovered riches help fuel the desire for these wines for added benefit. For example, Chateau Latour 1982 was released in 1983 at c. £400 per case of 12 bottles. That case could today be sold for £16,000, implying an annual growth rate of a little over 12% per annum over the course of its life (and it will continue to be enjoyable for another 50+ years).

So, it is easy then?

First a bit of background.

The investment market is dominated by the red wines of Bordeaux where production levels of top-quality wine far exceeds any other area of note. Other areas which spark interest include the finest wines of Burgundy, Champagne, Tuscany and Piedmont and to a lesser extent some of the trophy wines from the new world.

For decades, centuries even, ‘gentlemen’ have been investing in wine, maybe unintentionally, but certainly filling their cellars with good Bordeaux and Burgundy, Port and Madeira and the like. Auction houses commenced wine sales in England in the middle of the last century and now there are all manner of brokers, merchants, exchanges and on-line auctions in existence. The internet has lent transparency to what was an opaque market, brought an endless flow of information and with it various offerings from a wide range of ‘investment specialists’. Investing in wine has become a more commonplace activity. Very few of these specialists, however, are authorised by the FCA or an equivalent and, thanks to the great bull market of 2005-2011 a proliferation of new companies designed to take advantage of this phenomenon were formed.

Like all markets the wine market continues to evolve although the last decade has proved to be probably the most turbulent period in its history. Previously, wine price performance was generally very steady with long term returns going back to the seventies averaging just over double figures. Once a decade or so, a global crisis would cause a healthy reality check (the oil crisis of ’73, the stock market crash of ’87, the Asian currency crisis of ’97 and the Lehman debacle of ’08, although the latter turned out to be very short lived) and then things would revert to normal.

The great bull run that begun in 2005 was created by exceedingly high and new demand emanating from mainland China. The fast expanding Chinese economy created easy money that flowed through the hands of the relatively experienced Hong Kong based merchants all the way to London, the global centre of secondary market wine trading (the primary markets being located at the point of production). Prices were pushed higher and higher, no one wanted to sell as the value kept on going up, until one day it all stopped.

What had not been appreciated at the time, by either the market or its participants was that this money was not just coming from the newly wealthy and aspirational individual but mainly from officials and employees of state owned enterprises.

Their ostentatious extravagance was legendary – lavish dining in top class restaurants and hotels accompanied by lashings of fine first growth wines, the corporate gifting of wine that oiled the wheels of business and the need to be seen only drinking the very best.

The government had lost control – and that was not going to wash with the incoming new President, Xi Jinping. In mid-2011 all luxury items and their markets were knocked back as the new environment of anti-graft measures were introduced and these measures remain firmly in place today. Having risen c. 260% from ’05 to mid-2011, the Liv-ex 100 index, the leading market indicator, then fell by 36% between mid-2011 and mid-2014. Since then the market has stabilised and in recent weeks has started to appreciate once again. The natural order is returning, and the madness of this extraordinary period has receded, the river of cash from China has dried up and a lot of the new, often dubious, players have been washed up on that river’s banks.

Another major factor that came into play during this period of flux was the stratospheric pricing of two Bordeaux vintages of outstanding quality, 2009 and 2010. Not wishing to miss the party the Bordelais lost their heads; 2009 sold but the market just couldn’t stomach the prices from 2010. Subsequent vintages were not reduced to commercial levels and have also failed to sell.

Some readers will be familiar with en primeur, meaning the first release, which is the first opportunity to purchase wine from the new vintage. In the good old days this was the opportunity to get in on the ground floor and the majority of investors and consumers benefitted. That game is long gone and arguably the market has split between the recent vintages where the release price still influences and the older vintages where the secondary market controls pricing. The market for older wines is, in any case, more compelling as pricing is more logical, there is greater assurance of quality and the dwindling of supply has begun.

Opportunities abound, especially now we are ‘ex-China’. Pricing has never been more competitive and the information available have never been so sophisticated. So, yes, it is easy – if you know what you are doing!


Miles Davis, February 2015


Focus on: Bartolo Mascarello, Barolo

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-03-14


2007 £1,300 per 6 WO Score 96

2010 £2,100 per 6 WO Score 100

Bartolo Mascarello Bottle

Bartolo Mascarello is one of the true legends of Barolo, think Rousseau or Roumier in Burgundy terms, in case you’re not familiar with the ‘Knights of Nebbiolo’. And if that’s still confusing, think Liverpool (Football Club), but I would say that, wouldn’t I? In fact, to be drawn against Juve tomorrow morning could easily inspire a trip to Piedmont, with a bit more than hazelnuts to look forward to! I digress…

Maria-Teresa Mascarello took over from Bartolo, her father, in 1993, the estate having been founded in 1918. Beautifully simple in its creation, the wine is a blend of four of the top crus, or vineyards and has been consistently and spectacularly successful for decades.

Market price versus score

In the charts above and below we have compared various well-regarded vintages of a similar era. These vintages are very good and very scarce, two of the most important factors for investors as they are squirreled away by the canniest collectors and prices have been rising. They are still a fraction of their Burgundian cousins however and we have no issue with recommending a buy, particularly the ’07 and the ’10, the cheapest relative value bets here:

Barolo Relative value score

Tasting notes, courtesy of Vinous Media:

2007: Mascarello’s 2007 Barolo shows just how compelling this vintage can be, even now. Sensual, layered and totally voluptuous in the glass, the 2007 shows the more flamboyant side of Barolo. I find the wine’s voluptuous, engaging personality impossible to resist. Sure, 2007 is not a classic vintage, but when a wine is this good, I say: Who cares?

2010: The 2010 Barolo is one of the most striking, hauntingly beautiful wines I have ever tasted here. Mysterious and slow to show its cards, the 2010 impresses for its inner perfume, sweetness and exceptional overall balance. Today the striking fruit and classic, austere elements of the vintage take turns in dominating the wine's balance. The 2010 was always magnificent in barrel. It is equally spectacular from bottle. Readers who can find the 2010 should not hesitate. Ideally I wouldn't dream of touching a bottle until age 15 or so, although I doubt I will personally have the discipline to follow my own advice!

The 2007 is the cheaper option from a classic vintage and the 2010 is the turbo charge version from the all-conquering 2010 vintage. Both are recommended.


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