by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-04-05
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-03-28
Keen followers of Bordeaux can’t have missed the striking price revivals that have been in progress over roughly the last 12 months, and Mouton Rothschild 2006 makes for in interesting case study.
We’re looking here at what is effectively an over-performing wine in an under-appreciated vintage. 2006 Mouton has consistently been rated highly by both Robert Parker (last scored at 96 in 2014) and Neal Martin (scored at 97 points in May 2016), and compares very favourably to the other First Growths in 2006. Latour consistently scores around 94-95; Lafite at 95 from Neal Martin, 97 from Parker; Margaux at 94 and Haut Brion at 96.
Not only that, it outscores or equals itself in what ought to be better vintages. The 2005 is likewise rated 97 by both Parker and Martin, and 2006 is only outscored in recent vintages by 2009 and 2010. No doubt then that winemaker Philippe Dhalluin did exceptional work in the vintage, and those buying at the nadir of the market in and around January 2015 were picking up a serious bargain at around £3000, the same price as the far less interesting 2007, and rather cheaper than the less well-rated 2008.
However, having risen in value throughout 2016 from £3200 to £4400, the market price has stagnated since October 2016, and now stands at £4500, with bids standing around £4130, which is still the highest this wine has traded at since 2011, but starts to look like the top of the market. For drinkers, this seems to continue to represent good value, but for those interested in wine as a store of value, quite possibly one to swap out.
Click here to see live trading information on Mouton 2006.
Did you know...? British artist Lucian Freud was commissioned to create the label for the 2006 vintage of Château Mouton-Rothschild. "Far from the tormented portraits and nudes for which he is renowned, [he] chose a joyously exotic transposition of the pleasure of drinking, in which the vinestock is transformed into a springing palm tree and the wine lover into a happily anticipatory zebra." Source: Chateau Mouton Rothschild.
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by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-03-22
Few producers ever achieve the magical 100 point rating from the Wine Advocate. Parker’s ratings have been the most influential in the world, so to achieve the magic century is quite some accolade; to achieve it more than once is the stuff of dreams; to achieve it 28 times as have Guigal’s famed Cote Rotie triumvirate of La Landonne, La Turque and La Mouline (collectively nicknamed ‘the La Las’) is unprecedented. No other producer from a single appellation comes close.
You might have thought that these three wine with a claim to be among the finest in the world should cost the earth, shouldn’t they? Well, in fact they don’t – at least not in comparison with the finest wines of Bordeaux, Burgundy and California.
For the purposes of this analysis we’re going to look at the 2009 vintage, which paints a fairly typical picture for these wines. Historically there is very little variation in the values of the three wines, with prices often within a 3% range. So, this chart for La Mouline ’09 is mirrored closely by the other two. What is immediately noticeable is that prices have, until midway through last year, fallen consistently. This despite two 100 point scores in November 2013 and September 2014!
The fall in price is on a par with the falls in value of Bordeaux wines in the same period, but importantly the La Las did not have a huge price rise immediately prior to the falls that insulated many buyers from the slump. It seems, on the face of it that Guigal’s amazing wines were simply the victim of a lack of global interest in Rhone wines at the top end.
This seems to be changing however, as over the last 6 to 9 months the relatively attractive pricing has found favour, and sentiment seems to have turned positive. All good vintages across all three wines are moving upwards, and demand is out-stripping supply for the first time in many years.
La Mouline 09 is 15% up since July, and is on its way back to the £4000 a case level last seen in early 2013. In our view there is reason* to be confident that this recovery is a fundamental re-evaluation of the value of the wine, rather than simply the beneficial effect of weak Sterling, and there is definitely reason* to add this to a cellar, for both investment and drinking purposes.
So, what is this reason you may well ask?
Sadly, the La La’s were among the chosen wines of various boiler room, sales led operations who decided that they were ideal wines to sell as investments to unsuspecting investors at way over fair market prices. This created skewed pricing and led to reputational damage to the wines that caused prices to drop. Thankfully most of these operations have now closed down, and their negative impact on the market has dissipated. The secondary market is now a healthier place for these great wines, and prices are once again reflecting the supreme quality and longevity of Rhone’s finest.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-01-06
With the highly touted 2015 Burgundy campaign upon us, we can be sure of two things: it is a superb vintage, and prices will rise.
Let’s be honest, Burgundy is for wine lovers. Although we may have more Bordeaux in our cellars - steady, consistent, blended excellence - it is fickle, flirtatious Burgundy which steals our hearts. And the whole world is now falling in love with Burgundy, courting the tiny quantities and ready to take our place in the queue.
The pure, ripe fruit of the 2015s will tempt early drinking, but if we want to experience the extraordinary range of flavours, textures and sensations that fine burgundy can produce, we must be prepared to wait. Or to seek out mature wines from great producers in other vintages. Remember, in Burgundy more than anywhere, it is the producer who matters more than the vineyard or the year.
So rather than bet the whole house on the latest vintage, now might be the time to review the Burgundies that your fellow collectors have offered for sale on the fine wine exchange.
There is a dazzling range of beautiful wines available, from the most humble appellations to the greatest of Grand Crus. Some are for drinking now, others for keeping for the future, whatever that may bring. Some are in bond and some are duty paid, but DP prices are never more than their In Bond case equivalents and there is no VAT for exchange buyers. All were bought when the pound was much stronger and prices were lower. Prices of Burgundy’s back vintages may never be this low again.
So where would you start?
Chardonnay is arguably easier to enjoy across the board in youth than Pinot Noir. 2014 whites have greater precision and zest than their 2015 counterparts and it is probably the best vintage since 2001. 2014s are only just starting to appear as offers for sale on the secondary market and they are unquestionably worth having in any cellar.
As long as yields of this naturally exuberant varietal are constrained, there is plenty to pick from: 2013, 2012, 2010, 2007 were all very good, whilst there are some terrific 2006s with nerve and energy, in contrast to lush and giving 2008s. Very late malolactic fermentations in 2001 lent plenty of substance to the best wines; they had longer to feed off their nourishing lees. When looking at 2005 and earlier fears of premature oxidation (premox) have really hurt the market. But there are still old bones that are simply thrilling.
Looking to red Burgundy, consider 2005 - considered one of the great vintages and should make fine old bones, but there's tannins aplenty, some more puckering than others depending on extraction, that suggests another 10-20 years will be required. Indeed they may be drinking in the same window as 2015 or later!
Consider 2010, a vintage with the nerve and intensity of 2008 married to the flesh of a vintage like 1995.
If you want to buy into a vintage that was overlooked when released but that has evolved into one of the most exciting we’ve tasted look to 2002, a lesson if ever there was one in how pinot noir loves luminosity more than heat. These are wines with fine intensity and great purity.
Talking of which, if you’re a classicist and enjoy form over flattery, 2001 is starting to climb the upward slope of maturity with wines that are sappy and crystalline but may have yet to reach their peaks.
The truly great 1999s are lusciously fleshy, sweetly spiced and dense, but at the same time so coiled, that most Grand Crus will surely need another 5-10 years. Many premier crus and village wine are gorgeous now.
2012 is a successful recent vintage that had really low yields (a very good thing for Pinot Noir) but will be cheaper than 2015. Producers love 2012 thanks to their fabulous balance and flattering ripe fruit, which nonetheless blankets an underlying structure for mid term appreciation.
The top tips for 2015s (whatever we say, we know you’ll want to buy some!) are that the lesser appellations, cooler climates and colder soils will excel. You don't need to stretch to the top of the tree to find great Pinot Noir in 2015 to drink over the next 15 years, which is great news for Burgundy lovers and something to be thankful for in a very expensive vintage.
Buying back vintages vs new releases
Other than exceptionally hard to find Grand Crus and Holy Grail producers’ best wines – that you’re either allocated or you’re not – it’s worth looking to premier crus from producers with good reputations for quality and value-hunting.
Take Beaune Grèves L’Enfant Jésus from Bouchard Père et Fils. Whilst back vintages were much cheaper at release than they are today, there isn’t much between the release price of 2015 or any number of superb back vintages.
As the chart below shows, the superb 1999 vintage is still cheaper today than the release price of 2015, the equally acclaimed 2010 is the same price, but you can drink it in 10 years instead of having to wait until the 2030s for the 2015; and only the 2005 and 2002 are a little more expensive – but not hideously so.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-12-14
Two pieces of news caught my attention in December.
The first was Martin Brown, CEO of Wine-Searcher, speaking at a conference in California, noting that increased pricing transparency had not caused market prices of wine to fall.
He wasn’t referring to just fine wine or collectible wine, but rather the effect of his price comparison site on retail prices and the wine market as a whole. I’m paraphrasing, and you can read the whole of the discussion on their blog.
The second was the news that Stanley Gibbons, the stamp specialist and now owner of a group encompassing antiques specialist Malletts and auctioneer Drewetts, has seen it share price tank over the last year (see chart).
Let’s begin with Stanley Gibbons and the stamp market.
STANLEY GIBBONS GROUP PLC ORD 1P
The share price tanked in part because of how it reported revenues from the sale of ‘plans’ in investment grade stamps.
Like fine wine, stamps are a collectible. Unlike fine wine, there is a great deal less price transparency in the stamp market.
As a consequence, Stanley Gibbons used to offer collectible stamp buyers a buy back scheme, whereby the company itself guaranteed the purchaser 75% of their original investment back if the value of the stamps purchased through their Capital Protected Growth Plan fell over a 5-10 year period.
Since the repurchase scheme booked stamps onto their balance sheet at a discounted rate to their own retail catalogue rather than at cost, its auditor has estimated the potential balance sheet liability (and asset write-downs) to be £64M.
Collectible markets are relatively illiquid, in large part because the things that people collect are rarely fungible*.
But just because a market isn’t fungible or liquid doesn’t mean it can’t benefit from price and market transparency. Not to mention direct market access.
The nature of a trading collectible market, as the Stanley Gibbons example highlights, is that very rare examples are quite hard to estimate, whilst more liquid collectibles will tend to sell within or just below the lowest cluster of available market offers for sale.
Onto Martin Brown’s speech on price transparency
Wine-Searcher has done a great job of price comparison and substantially improving price transparency, so that no matter where in the world you are, it’s easy to get a price for and find the wine you want.
The key point is that price transparency has not driven down retail wine pricing, contrary to economic theory, but it has substantially reduced price outliers, both high and low.
Wine Owners works with Wine-Searcher, receiving tens of millions of price point as the building blocks of our Market Level price – the price at which it’s likely a wine will find ready buyers (or the approximate point of market liquidity). That data is combined with traded wine prices and for the rarest wines in the world we’ll be cross-referencing with auction data from the biggest Houses.
Blue chip fine wine behaves like collectible markets, not like CPG markets. Production and therefore supply is limited. Where there is no demand prices fall or stagnate, but where there is a ready market of buyers, prices rise. Just as you’d expect.
In fact, price discovery is the underpinning of all successful and proper-functioning trading markets.
Reliable, actionable pricing data supports buy and sell decisions. It informs counter parties. It breeds confidence, and confidence boosts sentiment.
Direct market access
Combine market transparency based on realistic selling prices with direct market access that allows all market participants to buy and sell on a peer-to-peer basis, and the effect is entirely beneficial. Consumers get the opportunity to sell through their wines across the entire spectrum from interesting drinking bottles to desirable blue chips. Buyers can buy the wines they love to drink or to accumulate as a store of value from fellow wine lovers and collectors with little added market friction due to modest commissions. Counter parties’ confidence to trade is assisted by price transparency and all the settlement and logistics support we offer through the platform.
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* The word fungible is used in relation to a category of asset that is indivisible from each other. Pure gold and shocks and shares are indivisible. One of each is the exactly the same as the next. Collectibles are not fungible. In wine the things that make a difference are storage, fill levels, the condition of labels, capsules, and where the wine has been (wine that’s made the journey from Bordeaux to London to Hong Kong and back again doesn’t give buyers the same quality of juice as Bordeaux to Octavian for example).
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-11-09
Is wine an effective safe haven?
With markets braced for a correction following a Trump victory, in anticipation of a more protectionist United States and slower global growth, will wine continue to do a good job of preserving and being a sound store of value?
The fine wine market is up well over 24% this year, building on last year's single digit rises and is currently seeing very strong levels of trading activity as more and more private individuals with discretionary wealth seek to diversify and enjoy the fruits of their hard-earned cash.
Scarcity driven markets such as Burgundy, Northern Italy and California have seen consecutive annual rises in each of the last 10 years that we’ve tracked the market. Burgundy is up 327% over that period.
Liquidity driven markets, principally Bordeaux, has gone through its correction following the Chinese-inspired bubble of 2009-2011, and secondary market sentiment is once again positive.
Collectors who have bought fine wine in the UK are at a particular advantage thanks to the devaluation of Sterling. The very large body of fine wine stored in the UK - estimated at £6bn - ensures that secondary market prices in the UK are favourable.
Whether you are looking to sell or build, wine increasingly looks like a safe bet in an increasingly uncertain world.
To discuss your next step, contact us now or call us on +44 (0)20 7278 4377.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-10-24
Market context and performance since June 24th
Serving as a general fine wine market tracker, the WO 150 gained 6% in the year to June (6.5% in the previous 12 months) but is now up 19.8% YTD.
Focusing on the all-important Bordeaux market, the world’s single largest region of fine wine production, the WO First Growth Index was up 8.7% year to date on 24th June, but is now up 23%.
As regards Bordeaux Firsts, this performance is on the back of 4 years of decline, following the bursting of a Chinese-inspired bubble in late 2011. The market in these blue chip Bordeaux bottomed in Q3 of 2015, and has soared since. Chateau Latour, released at £11,400 per case of 12 bottles, is now back within £100 per bottle of that release price.
The rest of the Bordeaux market had tested its lows the previous year, and so its performance year to June 2016 was a slightly higher 10.25%, reflecting the additional momentum gathered over the previous 18 months. Looking at all classified growths, the market is now up 22.5% YTD.
Whereas Bordeaux is a market driven by liquidity and large production volumes, scarcity-driven markets such as Burgundy, Piedmont and cult Californians, have enjoyed a long-term run stretching back 20+ years, and these wine markets have not suffered the roller coaster ride of Bordeaux.
The WO Northern Italy index is up 171% over the last 10 years, the WO Blue Chip Burgundy Index is up 311% over the same period, and the WO California index is up a whopping 427%.
What’s going to be the effect on new releases?
New releases are already more expensive to buy due to the pound buying less euros or dollars.
Brexit will cause new releases of two sought after vintages (Burgundy 2015 and Bordeaux 2016) to rise by 30%+, caused by producer increases of, say, around 10% compounded by the 20% effect of devaluation.
First in line: the impending 2015 Burgundies are due for UK release as futures in January 2017. With a compromised 2016 vintage assuring small production volumes, 2015s from some addresses will rocket to compensate for next years’ lower production.
Bordeaux will follow in April 2017.
Given the UK’s preeminent role in global fine wine trading, Brexit has turbo-charged market performance, and given the relatively recent recovery of Bordeaux markets a boost after a prolonged period of decline.
As the pound falls, assuming a rising fine wine market (key as it means there's strong global demand), the price of secondary market wines will rise since they are cheaper to buy for buyers holding currencies such as HKD or dollars.
This increases the value of collectors' current stock since the market is global. London is still one of the most important global trading hubs for fine wine, if not the most important.
Could price rises kill demand?
Because top burgundy from the best producers can double after first release it is unlikely to dampen initial demand – by much. And if it does there’s always the USA, Japan and other markets that’ll mop up the relatively small volumes.
Secondary market prices of older vintages may rise, pulled up by the higher new release prices. But as they rise, the number of potential secondary market buyers may decrease, causing these scarcity driven markets to become less liquid. As a result, it may take longer to sell your wines at these higher prices. The moral of the story is that scarcity driven markets are not for the impatient seller who needs cash tomorrow. These are better seen as long-term holds.
Bordeaux prices of the new vintage (2016) will also rise when they are released next year. Whether the UK Market chooses to buy or sits this one out remains to be seen.
However, the USA is more or less certain to be buying these futures aided by vintage character of ripe, powerful wines from a hot summer that will suit their palates.
As a consequence, enduring weakness of the pound will place further upward pressure on back vintages.
We predict that recent back vintages will increase sooner than is normally the case (1-2 years instead of the more common 5-7 years), as top Bordeaux producers are becoming principal stockholders in an attempt to capture more of the downstream value of their wines and increase the value of their balance sheet assets.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-09-12
The WO First Growth Index showed price appreciation over the last 12 months pushed through the 20% threshold last week.
Haut Brion’s emergence as a wine that can now rivals its peers in the secondary market is clear, with 4 vintages in the top 10 movers, namely 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008. Will we see Haut Brion close the gap where historically it would have sold at a discount to the other Firsts? The data seems to support the likelihood of this happening.
The top 10 movers have risen 23%-32% in the last year. Furthermore there has been just one faller out of the 75 constituents of the WO First Growth Index, namely Latour 2005.
Top 10 movers over the last 12 months
For the first time in years, we see a wine from the twin peaks of 2009 and 2010 in the top 10 movers, in the shape of the exceptional Margaux 2010. Scores from Robert Parker, Neal Martin and Stephen Tanzer oscillate in the 96-99 range, but the market is indicating it thinks that this could be a perfect wine. It’s now caught up with Haut Brion and Lafite at circa £540 per bottle.
Latour’s withdrawal from the en primeur business looks like paying dividends. Although the 2010’s value is far out in front of the field at £845 a bottle, it’s still not broken through it’s retail en primeur opening offer price of £950. Nevertheless it has performed well through the worst of the Bordeaux market’s 3-4 year slide, losing just 26% of its value by November 2015 before recovering, quite a decent performance compared with Lafite considering their similarly high release prices.
Can the Firsts continue this powerful recovery? Can they recapture the heights of their 2009 and 2010 release prices? If, so which will be the first ‘First’ to do so?
Least likely is Lafite, whose 2010 release price of £983 per bottle reflects a moment in time when Lafite was practically a Chinese barter currency, not to mention the 2009’s vertiginous release of £1,000. In each case there is a loss per per bottle of £440 versus en primeur retail.
Most likely to get back to even terms, in order of proximity of current market price vs opening retail offer price, is:
Haut Brion 2010
Confidence has returned and momentum is driving the market forward. If and when the current price of the above 4 wines exceeds their opening prices, and buyers of 2009 and 2010 First Growths no longer see a sea of red loss/gain percentages in their portfolios, confidence will be given a further boost.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-07-21
The past few weeks have seen significant movements and activity within the fine wine market, with the closure of the En Primeur campaigns and the devaluation of sterling kicking the market 4-5% higher.
Whether this situation lasts following the surge remains to be seen, but combined with the upward movement of the market in the preceding few months, and 21 months of increasingly solid gains in the Bordeaux market, it makes for an interesting period.
We've put together our updated set of Fine Wine Predictions for the second half of 2016, including thoughts on the impact of Brexit, tips for collectors, and analysis of buying trends in the market.
We hope you enjoy reading the report, and would love to hear from you if you have any questions, are looking for specific guidance, or want to join the conversation.
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by Wine Owners
Posted on 2016-06-10
There’s a clear division between 2015 En Primeur releases before Vinexpo Hong Hong and those that have been announced since. It begs the question, why?
It's not just that the bigger Chateaux are the ones releasing later. After all, many important names had released well beforehand.
The answer is what happened whilst the producers were in Hong Kong.
We understand that producers were taken aback by the demand they experienced this year at Vinexpo, and they boarded the flight home with bulging order books.
For every producer who wants to sell the new wines through En Primeur and recognises the importance of providing a future upside for buyers of non-physical stock, there are others who see a new opportunity within the changing global fine wine market.
Bernard Magrez was full of the joys of spring at Vinexpo Hong Kong, confirming he had sold out of his impressive Chateau Pape Clement in 40 minutes.
He was refreshing in his analysis, saying that he knew he’d left money on the table for the merchant and En Primeur buyer, which he saw as a positive for the property’s burgeoning reputation. Surely if you’re going to be part of En Primeur that’s the way to do it: body and soul.
Many others however have been eyeing life after En Primeur for some time, but have held back from backing one horse or another by the generally morose market conditions. With green shoots appearing over the last 12 months, few were in the mood to risk seeing them wither.
But what they experienced at Vinexpo may have shifted the balance further away from genuine, tangible broad-based support for En Primeur.
The Chateaux owners were surprised by the jump in orders experienced for their back vintages. There was a realisation that the wine market in China was coming back after 4 years of austerity and Party approbation.
The politics seem to be loosening up a touch, the consumer is spending again and contributing strongly to GDP growth, imports of luxury goods are steady (and proportionately performing better than exports).
Not that the Chinese buy En Primeur, there’s still almost no market there for it there, but with physical stocks in Bordeaux being soaked up by a sharp uptick in demand, it’s hardly surprising many producers are choosing to hold onto significantly more of the new vintage, so that they can serve the Asian market further down the line.
What a relief it must be to see all those accumulated bottles sell.
If it’s all heading towards producers being the stockholders and focusing on selling back vintages at premium prices, the one thing I’d say to them is, don't confuse the issue by using the En Primeur system as purely a promotional opportunity in the marketing calendar to get press and attention, if you don't care so much if any actually sells. It creates mixed messages.
I am super-impressed by what Palmer are doing in terms of developing sales channels worldwide, focusing on selling physical stock, staging stunning auctions through their negociant shareholder, creating a brand to rival the Firsts - but the En Primeur thing just muddies the water and undermines the brilliance of everything else.
If the recent Sotheby’s auction of Chateau Palmer in Hong Kong points the way to selling En Primeur by the barrel to high rollers with privileged access thrown in, I would surely go down that route as a producer too. The equivalent of £10,800 per 9 litres (12x75cl) before seller commission is simply amazing if you can get it.
“Chapeau”. I raise my hat to the Chateaux who go the full-on brand-building route and do it this well - but why risk the negative sentiment and comments that a perceptually very high En Primeur release price creates? There are simply too many foreseeable consequences: negative comments (mea culpa); anxious merchant emails to clients warning them off; negociants dropping prices during the course of the same day the release happens in a mildly desperate attempt not to be left with expensive stock that might/ will have to be written down; and static or lower secondary market prices that will make consumer buyers feel negative about the brand due to being under water ‘x’ years down the line.
With Asian appetite for Bordeaux on the rise once again, the moment may have arrived when more and more producers will respond to the shift in demand for primary market releases of back vintages by backing the new horse. It’s a complicated decision with a brew of old allegiances, dependent market structures, local friends, brand building, rising land values and a changing global market. Watch this space.