Bordeaux 2017 - Wine Owners' Proto-prices
by CloMlr
2018-04-19
Wine Owners created proto-prices (first published in this JancisRobinson.com article) to help consumers identify value among en primeur offers. The prices support consumers when buying en primeur, by providing a consistent baseline from which to make purchasing decisions. Confidence in en primeur has been damaged in recent years, by over-inflated release prices and by fraudsters posing as brokers (always check the data, and always check the broker!), so we saw a clear need for a remedy. Each proto-price is the price at which Wine Owners believes a wine should be released in order to make its en primeur offer attractive and worthwhile for the consumer.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Symbiotic EP
En Primeur must be symbiotic to continue thriving; it must benefit both chateau and consumer. Chateau benefits from smoother cash-flow and up-front guaranteed sales. Consumer benefits from a better price – significantly lower than buying two years later at general release. The symbiosis has lost balance slightly in recent years, with release prices rising apparently out of control. We created our proto-prices to help restore some of that balance, by creating informed consumers and collectors. We can't (and shouldn't try to) control the chateaux; they must release their new wine at the price they think best reflects the market, and their position within the market. What we can do, though, is give consumers the data they need to make informed purchasing decisions.
Not If But Which
Proto-prices address each wine individually. The decision is not if to buy wines en primeur, but which ones. If wine X doesn't look like good value, move to wine Y (no, that isn't an encoded hint to buy premier grand cru Sauternes!). And if none of your favourite wines look like good value this year, see below...
Back Vintages to the Future
Proto-prices support en primeur purchasing, and will hopefully help the tradition continue (on a stable path which benefits everyone involved). But if the new vintage of your preferred wine doesn't offer good value this year, adjust your gaze slightly. Caught up in the excitement of buying the new vintage en primeur, many of us forget to check availability and price of back-vintages. The Wine Owners Exchange is brimming with back-vintages you can buy instead. And hopefully, next year, you'll find the 2018 vintage at a more attractive en primeur price (the likelihood of which will significantly increase if enough consumers follow the buying advice in this article).
Proto-prices are based on a combination of solid wine market data and fine-grained knowledge. Last week in Bordeaux, one half of our team tasted tirelessly (well, almost tirelessly) through hundreds of 2017 Bordeaux wines, while at London HQ the other half was busy crunching market data. The combined result of these two efforts is the below table of 2017 proto-prices, featuring the seventy(ish) Bordeaux wines most commonly bought en primeur.
Happy en primeur purchasing, and...let the games begin!
WINE NAME | 2017 PROTO-PRICE | 2016 EP (IB) btl | % CHANGE 17 Vs. 16 | V-AVG * | Actual release price |
| Alter Ego de Palmer | £46.6 | £46.60 | 0% | £53.00 | £48.75 |
| Angelus | £232.05 | £298.00 | -22% | £238.00 | £280 |
| Ausone | £423.5 | £590.83 | -28% | £385.00 | |
| Beausejour Becot | £39.1 | £52.00 | -25% | £34.00 | £42 |
| Beausejour Duffau-Lagarrosse | £55.58 | £85.50 | -35% | £57.00 | £77 |
| Belair-Monange | £71.4 | £115.83 | -38% | £51.00 | £93 |
| Beychevelle | £56.3 | £56.30 | 0% | £68.00 | £52 |
| Calon-Segur | £71.5 | £78.30 | -9% | £65.00 | £61.50 |
| Canon | £65 | £90.80 | -28% | £50.00 | £67.50
|
| Canon La Gaffeliere | £44.85 | £64.17 | -30% | £46.00 | £54 |
| Cheval Blanc | £344.3 | £533.30 | -35% | £313.00 | |
| Clerc Milon | £49.16 | £49.16 | 0% | £52.00 | £52 |
| Clinet Pomerol | £49.73 | £72.00 | -31% | £51.00 | £57.50 |
| Clos Fourtet | £60.5 | £91.67 | -34% | £55.00 | £73 |
| Conseillante | £96 | £155.00 | -38% | £80.00 | £123 |
| Cos d'Estournel | £79 | £110.00 | -28% | £79.00 | £109 |
| de Valandraud | £87.75 | £129.15 | -32% | £90.00 | £100 |
| Domaine de Chevalier | £36.08 | £53.50 | -33% | £37.00 | £43 |
| Ducru-Beaucaillou | £92 | £140.00 | -34% | £92.00 | £124 |
| Duhart-Milon | £47.78 | £53.30 | -10% | £49.00 | £47 |
| Durfort Vivens | £34.65 | £40.33 | -14% | £33.00 | £38 |
| Figeac Saint Emilion | £113.4 | £155.00 | -27% | £81.00 | £123 |
| Gazin | £44.85 | £60.50 | -26% | £46.00 | £58.75 |
| Grand Puy Lacoste | £40 | £60.83 | -34% | £40.00 | £54 |
| Gruaud Larose | £40.95 | £51.67 | -21% | £42.00 | £52 |
| Haut Bailly | £52 | £87.50 | -41% | £52.00 | £74 |
| Haut-Brion | £310.2 | £400.00 | -22% | £282.00 | £355 |
| Haut-Brion Blanc | £583.33 | £583.33 | 0% | £557.00 | £615 |
| La Chapelle de La Mission Haut Brion | £48.4 | £63.33 | -24% | £44.00 | |
| La Fleur Petrus | £129.68 | £165.83 | -22% | £133.00 | £149 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion | £184.6 | £324.16 | -43% | £142.00 | £245 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion Blanc | £451.43 | £466.67 | -3% | £463.00 | £490 |
| La Mondotte | £126.75 | £199.00 | -36% | £130.00 | £119 |
| Lafite Rothschild | £398.72 | £491.66 | -19% | £498.40 | |
| Lafleur | £348.075 | £430.00 | -19% | £357.00 | £445 |
| Lagrange | £29.25 | £35.00 | -16% | £30.00 | £31 |
| L'Aile d'Argent Blanc | £54.17 | £54.17 | 0% | £53.00 | £56 |
| Lascombes | £47.78 | £56.67 | -16% | £49.00 | £52 |
| Le Petit Mouton Rothschild | £133.3 | £133.30 | 0% | £171.00 | £149 |
| Le Pin | £1574.63 | £2,083.00 | -24% | £1,615.00 | |
| L'Eglise-Clinet | £115.5 | £216.67 | -47% | £105.00 | |
| Leoville Barton | £48.75 | £62.50 | -22% | £50.00 | £54 |
| Leoville Las Cases | £113.3 | £175.00 | -35% | £103.00 | £148 |
| Leoville Poyferre | £49.73 | £67.00 | -26% | £51.00 | £55 |
| Les Carruades de Lafite | £125 | £125.00 | 0% | £215.00 | £135 |
| l'Evangile | £82.88 | £131.67 | -37% | £85.00 | £180 |
| L'If | £147.23 | £175.00 | -16% | £151.00 | |
| Lynch Bages | £74.1 | £95.80 | -23% | £76.00 | £74 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere | £33.6 | £40.00 | -16% | £28.00 | £33.30 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere Blanc | £41 | £41.00 | 0% | £32.00 | £42 |
| Margaux | £351.9 | £428.60 | -18% | £306.00 | £360 |
| Monbousquet | £33.15 | £36.67 | -10% | £34.00 | £38 |
| Montrose | £72.6 | £95.00 | -24% | £66.00 | £98 |
| Mouton Rothschild | £334.43 | £411.60 | -19% | £343.00 | £360 |
| Palmer Margaux | £171.6 | £236.60 | -27% | £156.00 | £195.75 |
| Pape Clement | £88.73 | £129.16 | -31% | £91.00 | £63.30 |
| Pape Clement Blanc | £98.33 | £98.33 | 0% | £68.00 | £100.45 |
| Pavie Macquin | £39.98 | £58.33 | -31% | £41.00 | £52 |
| Pavie Saint Emilion | £194.03 | £298.00 | -35% | £199.00 | £280 |
| Pavillon Blanc | £145.83 | £145.83 | 0% | £150.00 | £147 |
| Pavillon Rouge | £133.58 | £115.00 | 16% | £137.00 | £135 |
| Petrus | £1642.88 | £2,666.00 | -38% | £1,685.00 | |
| Pichon Baron | £79.2 | £115.60 | -31% | £72.00 | £98 |
| Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande | £84.7 | £122.50 | -31% | £77.00 | £93 |
| Pontet Canet | £68.4 | £111.67 | -39% | £57.00 | £82 |
| Quintus | £58.5 | £95.80 | -39% | £60.00 | £93 |
| Rauzan Segla | £46.8 | £61.30 | -24% | £48.00 | £54 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte | £50 | £78.00 | -36% | £50.00 | £69 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc | £73 | £73.00 | 0% | £57.00 | £83 |
| Troplong Mondot | £66 | £100.00 | -34% | £55.00 | £72 |
| Trotanoy | £119.93 | £193.33 | -38% | £123.00 | |
| Vieux Chateau Certan | £128.75 | £196.67 | -35% | £103.00 | |
| AVERAGE REDUCTION FOR A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN | | | -23% | | |
* V-AVG: avg current mkt value 04,06,08,12,14
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