The wine market is go!

2015-02-16

The turning point for fine Bordeaux was August of last year. By early October it was unclear whether the tick-up was yet another of those blips we’d seen several of during the previous 24 months.

Today it is clearer: the trend is up, most wines are well off their lows, and the Bordeaux Index overall is 2.17% up on 6 months ago.

The exception is the Libournais index covering Pomerol and St Emilion, which has slipped 0.48%, a reversing the gains of 1.24% between early October and the end of November last year.

The Medoc Classed Growths are collectively up 2.77% form their August 9^th 2014 lows.

Whereas the First Growths only managed 1.51% during the same period. Not entirely surprising since top vintages are still highly priced, they have had further to fall, making it hard to call bottom, and started picking up momentum in January 2015. What is clearer is that wines such as Haut Brion 2008 appear to be interesting propositions.

Elsewhere the Blue Chip Burgundy Index continues to power ahead, though within that there are notable, and expensive, fallers (last 12 months):

Domaine de la Romanee-Conti Le Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2010	-7.16
Domaine Ponsot Charmes Chambertin Cuvee des Merles Grand Cru AOP	2010	-7.69
Domaine Armand Rousseau Mazis-Chambertin Grand Cru AOC	2010	-7.89
Domaine Jean Grivot Richebourg Grand Cru AOC	2007	-9.43
Domaine de la Romanee-Conti Romanee Saint Vivant Grand Cru AOC	2010	-10.71
Domaine Jean Grivot Echezeaux Grand Cru AOC	2002	-11.2
Domaine Leflaive Batard-Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2006	-13.15
Sylvain Cathiard Vosne Romanee En Orveaux Premier Cru AOC	2010	-13.69
Domaine Comte Georges de Vogue Chambolle Musigny Les Amoureuses Premier Cru AOC	2002	-13.7
Domaine de la Romanee-Conti La Tache Monopole Grand Cru AOC	2010	-15.38
Domaine Armand Rousseau Clos de la Roche Grand Cru AOC	2010	-16.08
Domaine Leflaive Batard-Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2005	-16.18
Domaine Jean-Francois Coche-Dury Corton-Charlemagne Grand Cru AOC	2006	-16.35
Domaine Leflaive Chevalier-Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2005	-16.67
Domaine Leflaive Le Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2008	-20
Domaine Leflaive Le Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2006	-20.16
Domaine Leflaive Le Montrachet Grand Cru AOC	2005	-21.94

Northern Italy is up 1.42%, with Giacomo Conterno one again heading the leaderboard

Champagne has defied our predictions in gaining a whopping 7.42% over the last 6 months, the top risers comprising exclusively older vintages in the range 1996-2002. This makes a lot of sense. Millions of bottles of top cuvees such as Dom Perignon (up to 8M bottles per annum) means that values kick up only when supply and demand becomes more balanced.

We also thought Californian wines would moderate their growth this year. Comparative to Bordeaux prices, they seem expensive. Since January they have indeed dipped -0.65%, off the back of six month growth of 6.65% up until that point. It’s too early to say whether they are simply pausing for breath, or have reached a natural plateau. The trend line favours the first scenario.