Firsts on fire

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2016-09-12


The WO First Growth Index showed price appreciation over the last 12 months pushed through the 20% threshold last week.


Haut Brion’s emergence as a wine that can now rivals its peers in the secondary market is clear, with 4 vintages in the top 10 movers, namely 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008. Will we see Haut Brion close the gap where historically it would have sold at a discount to the other Firsts? The data seems to support the likelihood of this happening.

The top 10 movers have risen 23%-32% in the last year. Furthermore there has been just one faller out of the 75 constituents of the WO First Growth Index, namely Latour 2005.


Top 10 movers over the last 12 months

Chateau Margaux Premier Grand Cru Classe

2010

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2010

Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2010

Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Léognan Premier Grand Cru Classe

2010

Chateau Latour Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2010

Chateau Margaux Premier Grand Cru Classe

2009

Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2009

Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Leognan Premier Grand Cru Classe

2009

Chateau Latour Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2009

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classe

2009


For the first time in years, we see a wine from the twin peaks of 2009 and 2010 in the top 10 movers, in the shape of the exceptional Margaux 2010. Scores from Robert Parker, Neal Martin and Stephen Tanzer oscillate in the 96-99 range, but the market is indicating it thinks that this could be a perfect wine. It’s now caught up with Haut Brion and Lafite at circa £540 per bottle.





Latour’s withdrawal from the en primeur business looks like paying dividends. Although the 2010’s value is far out in front of the field at £845 a bottle, it’s still not broken through it’s retail en primeur opening offer price of £950. Nevertheless it has performed well through the worst of the Bordeaux market’s 3-4 year slide, losing just 26% of its value by November 2015 before recovering, quite a decent performance compared with Lafite considering their similarly high release prices.

Can the Firsts continue this powerful recovery? Can they recapture the heights of their 2009 and 2010 release prices? If, so which will be the first ‘First’ to do so?

Wine

Year

% change

Current price £

Release £

Variance £

Chateau Margaux Premier Grand Cru Classé

2010

27.21

544.89

667

-123

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2010

18

540.85

983

-443

Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2010

15.92

473.33

667

-194

Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Léognan Premier Grand Cru Classé

2010

14.46

543.7

667

-124

Chateau Latour Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2010

12.77

845.99

950

-105

Chateau Margaux Premier Grand Cru Classé

2009

19.71

538.68

808

-270

Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2009

14.8

454.6

708

-254

Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Léognan Premier Grand Cru Classé

2009

12.71

507.21

708

-201

Chateau Latour Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2009

10.13

780.1

892

-112

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac Premier Grand Cru Classé

2009

7.58

560.32

1000

-440

Least likely is Lafite, whose 2010 release price of £983 per bottle reflects a moment in time when Lafite was practically a Chinese barter currency, not to mention the 2009’s vertiginous release of £1,000. In each case there is a loss per per bottle of £440 versus en primeur retail.

Most likely to get back to even terms, in order of proximity of current market price vs opening retail offer price, is:

Latour 2010

Latour 2009

Margaux 2010

Haut Brion 2010

Confidence has returned and momentum is driving the market forward. If and when the current price of the above 4 wines exceeds their opening prices, and buyers of 2009 and 2010 First Growths no longer see a sea of red loss/gain percentages in their portfolios, confidence will be given a further boost.


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