by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-03-21
The Wine Owners platform is rich in data and content.
Our proprietary algorithms process millions of rows of incoming pricing data to calculate a Market Level - the price at which a wine is likely to find a ready buyer - based on market supply and spread models. The more liquid the wine the more accurate the price will be. Small production wines from older vintages can be virtually impossible to value and although we try our utmost to find a reference point, sometimes it just isn’t possible. This is hardly a new phenomenon for the wine market.
The Wine Owners average score is the Mean of all scores analysed for a wine that are published by wine writers and critics. For details of the main wine writers' scores that feed into the Wine Owners average mean score, please see the page on wine critics.
The WO average comes in on the conservative side (think Burghound not Parker), so anything above a 95 is a brilliant score.
Research and analysis
If you subscribe to the Collector package (for privates) or the Professional package (for trade) it is possible to research present and historic pricing, produce charts and carry out your own relative value analysis. You will be able to build your own vertical and horizontal analysis using Market Price versus Score and Relative Value Score and/or compare different wines from different vintages on the same chart, some examples here:
The above chart is self-explanatory, the below less so. The Relative Value Score equation is this:
(WO score - 79) * (WO score - 79) * 10 / price
By using this tool, you soon become used to identifying ‘cheap’ opportunities. Any First Growth that registers a double digit score looks good (but will always need further scrutinization), a highly rated super second from a good vintage scoring 20 looks interesting.
Generate your own fully customised graphs. Compare wine against wine(s), against wine indices and financial indices too!
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-03-07
February was a relatively quiet month for the wine market. The month started with the Chinese New Year celebrations which meant Asia was quiet and it also contained a European half term break. Sentiment towards Brexit turned, meaning GBP strengthened towards the end of the month, which is never good for the wine market as US$ based bids (U.S. and Asia) automatically adjust downwards. The broad base WO 150 index fell by 2.4%, as did our Blue Chip Burgundy index. In fact, all the indices for the major wine producing regions came off by c.3%.
If recent discussions with the finance and new venture folk surrounding wine as an alternative asset class were anything to go by, this is beginning to look like a good time to buy. Following the Brexit inspired rise of USD and Euro against GBP in 2016, the Bordeaux market has done nothing for almost a decade. ‘Bordeaux bashing’ peaked years ago too - just resentful shrugging goes on these days! En primeur looms but is largely a dead duck, so that is unlikely to provide stimulus to the market but a wall of money certainly might do the trick… watch this space!
We were busy trading 2009 red Bordeaux following various reports published after ‘ten year on tastings’. We blogged about these in general and focussed on one wine separately, Cos d’Estournel. We concluded that, as it continues to split opinion, and received some pretty low scores (93 from Jane Anson of Decanter for example), coupled with challenging price levels why take the risk when there are so many less controversial and comparatively cheaper wines available? There are many names still available on the exchange, from the excellent Cantemerle at c.£300 to Haut Brion and Mouton Rothschild at the cheapest in the market prices.
If you’re looking for decent ‘drinking’ claret buying en primeur made very little sense even back in 2009 which blew apart every previous record ever held for wine sales, anywhere on the planet. Factoring in the cost of storage and capital and the effect of inflation, the very respectable names of Cantemerle, Capbern Gasqueton, Haut Bergey, Lafon Rochet, Ormes de Pez and Potensac are all better value today than they were then! All these names are available on the platform today.
Sassicaia was in focus with the release of the much admired 2016 vintage, Monica Larner of the Wine Advocate awarding the full 100 points and meaning Armit, the UK agent sold out in seconds.
Screaming Eagle ’16 was released and is now offered at £7,250 per 3 bottles in the U.K. market. Not altogether surprisingly, this is making some older vintages looking relatively cheap! The ’17 will not be sold under the usual label due to smoke taint from the Californian wildfires.
And finally, we learnt the sad news that Gianfranco Soldera passed away in the middle of the month. We are planning to honour the magician of Montalcino with a memorial dinner later in the year, possibly in May.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-07
The broad-based WO 150 Index was flat for the month, as were nearly all the indices. The only real note of interest was the Burgundy Index, dropping by 0.7%. As you can see from the graph below it has been the stellar performer amongst the great wine producing regions of the world. It’s far too early to start calling a general cooling off period but as I have been arguing here it feels right to top slice some of the better performing names and start looking for some laggards.
The numbers in the box below are performance numbers over a five-year period, so all very respectable but nothing comes close to Burgundy. The consistency and lack of volatility must surely be a thing of beauty to the investor and connoisseur alike?
January is a busy month in the wine world when the latest Burgundy vintage is sold ‘en primeur’. 2017 was a decent vintage (See WO Blog) and has sold through pretty well given another year of testing prices.
The ‘Southwold group’ met in January to review the now in bottle Bordeaux 2015 vintage and there are two excellent reports on the three day session to be found on Vinolent.net and FarrVintners.com. In brief summary, ’15 is maybe not quite the excellent vintage that was first pronounced, certainly when judged by ‘English’ palates but still pretty damn good with some show stoppers therein. At the end of the Farr report there is an interesting table of recent vintages in order of perceived quality.
Here at Wine Owners we are betting more heavily on the ’16 vintage (not yet included in the Farr report) which we believe will move very close to the top of the leader board. Messrs Martin and Galloni of Vinous Media have recently reviewed the 16s in bottle and are waxing lyrical. Our very own meteorology and Bordeaux expert called the ’16 vintage some time back - pre the en primeur tastings even! All subsequent tastings and encounters of the vintage have confirmed our views and we are confident enough to shout BUY. What and when is a much more interesting question - so please get in touch to hear our thoughts.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-01-24
Haut Brion has always been referred to the connoisseur’s choice amongst the upper echelon and indeed it averages the highest scores across multiple vintages within its peer group. Yet strangely, and more often than not, it trades at a discount to its peers.
Looking at this Relative Value Score the 2006 (£3,500 per 12) stands out but good investment rationale can be argued for the ’90, ’95, ’96, and ’01 also.
The case for the ’90 (£8,900) is that it is currently trading at its widest ever discount to its chart-topping sibling of ’89 (£25,000) and the scarcity force is strong!
1995 (£4,300) because it’s getting on a bit now, is not that challenging in price terms and is drinking very nicely, as personally witnessed at Thanksgiving.
Last week the ’96 (£4,200), in my view a better wine than the ‘95, gave an effortless history lesson in classicism and has a long and charming life ahead. It was allowed five hours in the decanter which was richly rewarded and is a stupendous wine albeit not so overtly fruit driven as Mouton ’96, but that wine is £1,000 more per case at a similar rating level.
The ’01 is £3,700, so very low for a first growth and has been drinking well for some time. Its relative value score above 8 makes it look interesting.
The giants of ’05, ’09 and ’10 are exactly that and deserve to trade in another price bracket altogether. This commentator’s view, however, is that’s where they will stay for the time being and price performance in the short to medium term will evade them, as it has done in recent times:
Buy: Haut Brion ’90, ’95, ’96, ’01 and ‘06
Sell: Haut Brion ’05, ’09 and ‘10
Haut Brion 2000 will be included in a separate post.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-01-23
WO Score: 96
Price: £3,500 per 12
Haut Brion 2006 is cheap, working relatively on a vertical basis by comparing it to other similarly rated vintages of Haut Brion and also on a horizontal basis, comparing it to its first growth peers. Its absolute relative score of very close to 10 is a leading indicator - anything in double figures for a first growth positively screams a buy. This falls marginally short of that magical figure but its consistent notes and firm scoring of 96 gives it a buy recommendation.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-01-11
In a year, and particularly the last quarter, of great uncertainty the wine market has proved to be a place of great refuge - the WO 150 increased by 10.3%. The wine market performance during the fourth quarter of 2018 was flat, having been gently on the rise until December when indices, including the red-hot WO Burgundy Index, came off a little, in line with a noticeable drop off in turnover throughout the market. In the context of all asset classes, this is another demonstration of the low correlation with more conventional investments the wine market enjoys. Ongoing trade wars between China and the U.S. continued to damage confidence across the board, hitting stock markets, both developed and emerging and depreciating the Yuan – a significant factor as we estimate 40% of fine wine by value lands there. As global markets faltered the wine traders of London, the epicentre of the fine wine trading world, were and still are, gripped in the throes of Mrs. May’s desperate attempts to pass her Brexit bill.
The main story of 2018, like 2017, was Burgundy, the index posting a gain of 33%. A combination of Asian-led demand and real scarcity is a powerful dynamic. The biggest names amongst the producers and the grandest crus still dominate; the usual suspects of DRC and Rousseau are still out in front and may always stay that way but Coche-Dury, Dujac, Leroy, Mugnier, Roumier, and Rouget, are some of the names that are hot on their heels and we suspect there are plenty more sitting in behind. Prices of some wines have skyrocketed and are, some may argue, fast becoming the preserve of the insane (or very brave) as they rush headlong into unknown territory! A lot of serious collectors we know have been taking profit in these sorts of examples and are looking for value elsewhere.
The WO Champagne index rose by 8.8% on a feeling of increased interest from investors. Italy and the Rhone both performed respectably. More for reference, as it is so difficulty to source efficiently in the U.K., but the California index was more than respectable with +17.2%
Wine Owners Indices
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-19
Wine Owners created proto-prices (first published in this JancisRobinson.com article) to help consumers identify value among en primeur offers. The prices support consumers when buying en primeur, by providing a consistent baseline from which to make purchasing decisions. Confidence in en primeur has been damaged in recent years, by over-inflated release prices and by fraudsters posing as brokers (always check the data, and always check the broker!), so we saw a clear need for a remedy. Each proto-price is the price at which Wine Owners believes a wine should be released in order to make its en primeur offer attractive and worthwhile for the consumer.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
En Primeur must be symbiotic to continue thriving; it must benefit both chateau and consumer. Chateau benefits from smoother cash-flow and up-front guaranteed sales. Consumer benefits from a better price – significantly lower than buying two years later at general release. The symbiosis has lost balance slightly in recent years, with release prices rising apparently out of control. We created our proto-prices to help restore some of that balance, by creating informed consumers and collectors. We can't (and shouldn't try to) control the chateaux; they must release their new wine at the price they think best reflects the market, and their position within the market. What we can do, though, is give consumers the data they need to make informed purchasing decisions.
Not If But Which
Proto-prices address each wine individually. The decision is not if to buy wines en primeur, but which ones. If wine X doesn't look like good value, move to wine Y (no, that isn't an encoded hint to buy premier grand cru Sauternes!). And if none of your favourite wines look like good value this year, see below...
Back Vintages to the Future
Proto-prices support en primeur purchasing, and will hopefully help the tradition continue (on a stable path which benefits everyone involved). But if the new vintage of your preferred wine doesn't offer good value this year, adjust your gaze slightly. Caught up in the excitement of buying the new vintage en primeur, many of us forget to check availability and price of back-vintages. The Wine Owners Exchange is brimming with back-vintages you can buy instead. And hopefully, next year, you'll find the 2018 vintage at a more attractive en primeur price (the likelihood of which will significantly increase if enough consumers follow the buying advice in this article).
Proto-prices are based on a combination of solid wine market data and fine-grained knowledge. Last week in Bordeaux, one half of our team tasted tirelessly (well, almost tirelessly) through hundreds of 2017 Bordeaux wines, while at London HQ the other half was busy crunching market data. The combined result of these two efforts is the below table of 2017 proto-prices, featuring the seventy(ish) Bordeaux wines most commonly bought en primeur.
Happy en primeur purchasing, and...let the games begin!
| 2017 PROTO-PRICE || 2016 EP (IB) btl || % CHANGE 17 Vs. 16 || V-AVG * || Actual release price |
|Alter Ego de Palmer||£46.6||£46.60||0%||£53.00||£48.75|
| Ausone ||£423.5 || £590.83 || -28% || £385.00 || |
| Beausejour Becot ||£39.1 || £52.00 || -25% || £34.00 ||£42 |
| Beausejour Duffau-Lagarrosse ||£55.58 || £85.50 || -35% || £57.00 ||£77 |
| Belair-Monange ||£71.4 || £115.83 || -38% || £51.00 ||£93 |
| Beychevelle ||£56.3 || £56.30 || 0% || £68.00 ||£52 |
| Calon-Segur ||£71.5 || £78.30 || -9% || £65.00 ||£61.50 |
| Canon ||£65 || £90.80 || -28% || £50.00 ||£67.50|
| Canon La Gaffeliere ||£44.85 || £64.17 || -30% || £46.00 ||£54 |
| Cheval Blanc ||£344.3 || £533.30 || -35% || £313.00 || |
| Clerc Milon ||£49.16 || £49.16 || 0% || £52.00 ||£52 |
| Clinet Pomerol ||£49.73 || £72.00 || -31% || £51.00 ||£57.50 |
| Clos Fourtet ||£60.5 || £91.67 || -34% || £55.00 ||£73 |
| Conseillante ||£96 || £155.00 || -38% || £80.00 ||£123 |
| Cos d'Estournel ||£79 || £110.00 || -28% || £79.00 ||£109 |
| de Valandraud ||£87.75 || £129.15 || -32% || £90.00 ||£100|
| Domaine de Chevalier ||£36.08|| £53.50 || -33% || £37.00 ||£43 |
| Ducru-Beaucaillou ||£92 || £140.00 || -34% || £92.00 ||£124 |
| Duhart-Milon ||£47.78 || £53.30 || -10% || £49.00 ||£47 |
| Durfort Vivens ||£34.65 || £40.33 || -14% || £33.00 ||£38 |
| Figeac Saint Emilion ||£113.4 || £155.00 || -27% || £81.00 ||£123 |
| Gazin ||£44.85 || £60.50 || -26% || £46.00 ||£58.75 |
| Grand Puy Lacoste ||£40 || £60.83 || -34% || £40.00 ||£54 |
| Gruaud Larose ||£40.95 || £51.67 || -21% || £42.00 ||£52 |
| Haut Bailly ||£52 || £87.50 || -41% || £52.00 ||£74 |
| Haut-Brion ||£310.2 || £400.00 || -22% || £282.00 ||£355 |
| Haut-Brion Blanc ||£583.33|| £583.33 || 0% || £557.00 ||£615 |
| La Chapelle de La Mission Haut Brion ||£48.4 || £63.33 || -24% || £44.00 || |
| La Fleur Petrus ||£129.68 || £165.83 || -22% || £133.00 ||£149 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion ||£184.6 || £324.16 || -43% || £142.00 ||£245 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion Blanc ||£451.43 || £466.67 || -3% || £463.00 ||£490 |
| La Mondotte ||£126.75 || £199.00 || -36% || £130.00 ||£119|
| Lafite Rothschild ||£398.72 || £491.66 || -19% || £498.40 || |
| Lafleur ||£348.075 || £430.00 || -19% || £357.00 ||£445|
| Lagrange ||£29.25 || £35.00 || -16% || £30.00 ||£31|
| L'Aile d'Argent Blanc ||£54.17|| £54.17 || 0% || £53.00 ||£56 |
| Lascombes ||£47.78 || £56.67 || -16% || £49.00 ||£52 |
| Le Petit Mouton Rothschild ||£133.3 || £133.30 || 0% || £171.00 ||£149 |
| Le Pin ||£1574.63 || £2,083.00 || -24% || £1,615.00 || |
| L'Eglise-Clinet ||£115.5 || £216.67 || -47% || £105.00 || |
| Leoville Barton ||£48.75 || £62.50 || -22% || £50.00 ||£54 |
| Leoville Las Cases ||£113.3 || £175.00 || -35% || £103.00 ||£148 |
| Leoville Poyferre ||£49.73 || £67.00 || -26% || £51.00 ||£55 |
| Les Carruades de Lafite ||£125 || £125.00 || 0% || £215.00 ||£135 |
| l'Evangile ||£82.88 || £131.67 || -37% || £85.00 ||£180 |
| L'If ||£147.23 || £175.00 || -16% || £151.00 || |
| Lynch Bages ||£74.1 || £95.80 || -23% || £76.00 ||£74 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere ||£33.6 || £40.00 || -16% || £28.00 ||£33.30 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere Blanc ||£41 || £41.00 || 0% || £32.00 ||£42 |
| Margaux ||£351.9 || £428.60 || -18% || £306.00 ||£360 |
| Monbousquet ||£33.15 || £36.67 || -10% || £34.00 ||£38 |
| Montrose ||£72.6 || £95.00 || -24% || £66.00 ||£98 |
| Mouton Rothschild ||£334.43 || £411.60 || -19% || £343.00 ||£360 |
| Palmer Margaux ||£171.6 || £236.60 || -27% || £156.00 ||£195.75|
| Pape Clement ||£88.73 || £129.16 || -31% || £91.00 ||£63.30 |
| Pape Clement Blanc ||£98.33|| £98.33 || 0% || £68.00 ||£100.45 |
| Pavie Macquin ||£39.98|| £58.33 || -31% || £41.00 ||£52 |
| Pavie Saint Emilion ||£194.03 || £298.00 || -35% || £199.00 ||£280 |
| Pavillon Blanc ||£145.83|| £145.83 || 0% || £150.00 ||£147 |
| Pavillon Rouge ||£133.58 || £115.00 || 16% || £137.00 ||£135 |
| Petrus ||£1642.88|| £2,666.00 || -38% || £1,685.00 || |
| Pichon Baron ||£79.2 || £115.60 || -31% || £72.00 ||£98 |
| Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande ||£84.7 || £122.50 || -31% || £77.00 ||£93 |
| Pontet Canet ||£68.4|| £111.67 || -39% || £57.00 ||£82 |
| Quintus ||£58.5 || £95.80 || -39% || £60.00 ||£93 |
| Rauzan Segla ||£46.8 || £61.30 || -24% || £48.00 ||£54 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte ||£50 || £78.00 || -36% || £50.00 ||£69 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc ||£73 || £73.00 || 0% || £57.00 ||£83 |
| Troplong Mondot ||£66 || £100.00 || -34% || £55.00 ||£72 |
| Trotanoy ||£119.93 || £193.33 || -38% || £123.00 || |
| Vieux Chateau Certan ||£128.75 || £196.67 || -35% || £103.00 || |
| AVERAGE REDUCTION FOR A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN || || || -23% || || |
* V-AVG: avg current mkt value 04,06,08,12,14
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-04
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram next week as our team will be sharing their first impression and analysis on the new vintage live from le Bordelais.
Here's a taste of our week:
Château de Ferrand
Smith Haut Laffite
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-12-21
2017 was a fascinating year for the wine market: a year of solid growth, consolidation and even a flash of speculation!
It was also a year of broader consumer interest reignited.
Knight Frank’s global Wealth Report includes analysis of the fine wine market provided by Wine Owners. Wine was by far the best-performing collectible asset of 2016,
up 24%. As a result, lots of positive press in 2017 brought plenty of new interest into the market.
After the sharp price increases of 2016, when the Bordeaux market leapt as it rebounded off its 2014 lows following a couple of years of ticking up, 2017 was always going to be a less dramatic year for the classified and blue chip Bordeaux market.
It was encouraging to see a successful 2016 en primeur campaign that saw generally modest increases over 2015 in Euros, even if increases were more substantial for UK buyers due to the weakened currency. Overall gains in 2017 were low single-digit for
First Growths (after the 30% readjustment seen in the previous year). Other Classified growths and Right Banks rose an average of 7%.
Such moderation was less evident in the primary or secondary Burgundy market, the latter up 14.5%. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but the top of the market is holding onto 5-year gains of 100%, thanks in part to enduring Asian interest.
Hard luck stories
Burgundy was really hard hit by frosts in 2016. It’s a super vintage, but with many producer cellars that are 2/3rds empty. Only Vosne-Romanée and parts of Morey-St.-Denis and Gevrey-Chambertin escaped the April ‘gel’. Pretty much everywhere else was
heavily hit. The night-time freeze hit the Grand Crus and vineyards high up, the morning sun burned the buds of other premier crus and villages plots.
That big reduction in volume does add something to the intensity of the reds most noticeably. They are balanced, intensely redcurrant or blackcurrant in character, saline and fresh, with a vein of blood orange pulsing through them. The whites are fine
but don’t quite have the extraordinary rich, bright core of the 2014s, although in their favour the whites show more site specific character at this very early stage.
In 2017 Burgundy narrowly missed a second successive year of April misery, with an abundant vintage of good quality. Instead, Bordeaux was badly affected by freezing night-time temperatures in the last week of April, after a warm spring had encouraged
early growth. Some areas on the Right Bank, Graves and parts of the Medoc away from the warming waters of the Gironde were devastated. Chateaux de Fieuzel in Pessac isn’t making any wine in 2017.
What that will do to en primeur pricing next year remains to be seen, but widespread rises are on the cards, probably even those properties who emerged unscathed.
Notable winning regions
Champagne extended its run with top back vintages (where relative scarcity starts to play) racing ahead, up 13% in 2017. The world’s appetite for Champagne remains insatiable.
It was gratifying to see Northern Italy in rude health, with interest for Barolo Crus broadening significantly and prices of the best producers very sharply up this year on the back of a string of good vintages culminating in the highly sought after 2013s.
Talking of that flash of speculation, Margaux 2015 announced in November that Margaux would release their 2015 as a special edition in honour of Paul Pontallier, the managing director of the estate who died in March 2016.
We saw the first release from the chateau, offered in individual single wooden cases, at a significant premium to the release price.
Based on the Chateau’s announcement, we saw speculative trading in the wine between EP club members rise and rise, with bids climbing from under £6,000 to £12,000, representing more than a 130% increase compared to the release price to UK consumers of
The limited edition black bottles with a variation on the classic Margaux label in gold invited comparison with the 2000 Mouton Rothschild, which attracts a significant market following based on collectability, despite not being in the top flight of Mouton
vintages or even one of the best wines of the vintage.
Looking ahead to 2018
If you're interested to learn more about the health of the fine wine market and are interested in our predictions for 2018, you can now download our Fine Wine Predictions 2018 report, a must-read for collectors, wine lovers looking for value, and investors searching for opportunities.
DOWNLOAD PREDICTIONS 2018 REPORT
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We wish you all a very enjoyable festive season, and much vinous pleasure as you open great wine bottles to celebrate and see in 2018.
Best wishes for health and happiness from the Wine Owners team!
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2017-09-13
After a busy summer including in August our most productive trading month to date, we thought it would be instructive to run some analysis of trading trends and movements, compared to the same quarter in 2016.
Market share between regions remains relatively stable despite a large increase in trading value overall, with Bordeaux holding first place with a 75.14% share of market compared to 78.15% in the same quarter of 2016. That there is a drop is interesting in its own right, perhaps pointing to greater diversity in wines offered for sale, as well as to diversifying demand in export markets.
Burgundy is the major winner in market share, extending from 11.78% in summer 2016 to 17.10% over the same period in 2017, and we’ve certainly seen an increase in Burgundy purchases from Far East markets, showing a 17% increase on 2016 numbers by value.
Other regions remain very much minority sports, with Rhone up to 2.03% from 1.8% and Italy, surprisingly, down from 4.85% to 2.5%.
Within Bordeaux, the share of the market taken up by First Growths has grown from 28.26% in 2016 to 44.05%, perhaps reflecting heightened interest in the top wines, though the real interest is in how the First Growths compare within their own category.
Haut Brion is the major winner amongst the Firsts, increasing its share of the Bordeaux market to 13.35% from 3.2%. As a proportion of the First Growth market, the share increased from11.31% to 30.3%, putting Haut Brion at the head of the market alongside Lafite.
Lafite moved up to a 13.34% share of the Bordeaux market from 11.62%, but lost ground against the other First Growths, slipping to 30.29% from 41.12%, exchanging a clear lead in the class for an almost dead heat with the progressive Haut Brion.
Mouton showed a similar fall-off in share, dropping from an 8.63% share of Bordeaux to 7%, and a 30.54% share of the First Growth market dropping to a 15.89% share. Market and trading values for Lafite and Mouton remain robust however, so this feels more like a positive story about Haut Brion than a negative for the two Rothschild properties.
Latour has benefited too here, growing a very small share of Bordeaux (1.18%) to 5.07%, and increasing its share of the First Growth market from 4.18% to 11.05%.
Margaux has the least movement to comment on, increasing its share of the Bordeaux market marginally to 5.29% from 3.6%, and falling from 12.84% to 12.01% in its share of the First Growths.