by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-03-25
Vieux Chateau Certan 2011
Neal Martin Score: 96-98
Price: £1,300 per 12
Vieux Chateau Certan (VCC) needs very little introduction and in recent years it has been shooting the lights out. Its reputation as a superstar is confirmed yet it still seems to be going from strength to strength. This is clearly attributable to the stewardship of the popular and modest Alexandre Thienpont. The last ten vintages have averaged a score of 96 – that is remarkable in itself.
We have identified the 2011 as an excellent opportunity to achieve exposure to this magnificent estate at a really attractive price level (only the disastrous 2013 vintage is cheaper).
There is a reason for the cheap price, it was a difficult vintage and Mr. Parker scored the wine with a paltry 91 points. We think he’s got it wrong – and so do many others. Neal Martin scores it 96-98, James Suckling and Tim Atkin 96 and James Lawther MW 19. Recent price performance would suggest the market disagrees with him too, the price rising by nearly 40% in the last three years:
The 2009 and 2010 vintages Parker scored 99 points and were presumably a bit more in keeping with his tastes. These vintages contained no Cabernet Franc, even though the vineyards are planted 70% Merlot, 25% Cabernet Franc and 5% Cabernet Sauvignon. The 2011 contains 29% Cabernet Franc and as Neal Martin comments “this is more what I consider to be a classic VCC nose, unlike those previous vintages that gives you everything up front, this is far more intellectual and enigmatic”.
This chart uses only Neal Martin’s scores – if you believe in the critic, the data does the rest of the talking for you:
2011 was not a great vintage and suffered as it came behind the overpriced blockbusters of ’09 and ’10. En primeur was not working and to add to the woe, this also coincided with the ‘Great Wall of China Corruption Clampdown’ meaning the market was already in an unusual state of flux. The positive spin here is all of this has helped bring about this opportunity, as today’s price is only a little above the original release price.
Pomerol is widely regarded as the appellation of the vintage. VCC ’11 has been described by some as wine of the vintage and by others as wine of the right bank. Either way, a slice of VCC with a great future for a little more than £100 a bottle has plenty of upside potential - please refer back to the prices above of the ‘09, ‘10, and ’16.
Neal Martin’s tasting note from the Wine Advocate:
The Vieux Chateau Certan was cropped between 6th and 7th of September and from 14th until 20th September. That's what you'll read everywhere, although I was filming Alexandre when he was picking the final Cabernet around the 29th September! Cropped at 37hl/ha, it is a blend of 70% Merlot, 1% Cabernet Sauvignon and (yay!) 29% Cabernet Franc. It delivers 13.6 degrees alcohol with a total acidity of 3.5gms/L and an IPT of 83. After the Cabernet Francless 2009 and 2010, this is more what I consider to be a classic VCC nose and as Alexandre, unlike those previous vintages that gives you everything up front, this is far more intellectual and enigmatic with hints of mineral laden fruit, limestone and small dark cherries. It is beautifully defined yet distant. The palate is succinctly balanced with crisp acidity, exceptional balance and superb backbone. There is an undercurrent of masculinity, a saline tincture, crushed stone and a touch of dried herbs and yet these are just fleeting hints. It has enormous length and it is one of the very few that could be on the same ethereal plateau as the 2009 and 2010 and perhaps one day...even better. Tasted April 2012.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-03-14
2007 £1,300 per 6 WO Score 96
2010 £2,100 per 6 WO Score 100
Bartolo Mascarello is one of the true legends of Barolo, think Rousseau or Roumier in Burgundy terms, in case you’re not familiar with the ‘Knights of Nebbiolo’. And if that’s still confusing, think Liverpool (Football Club), but I would say that, wouldn’t I? In fact, to be drawn against Juve tomorrow morning could easily inspire a trip to Piedmont, with a bit more than hazelnuts to look forward to! I digress…
Maria-Teresa Mascarello took over from Bartolo, her father, in 1993, the estate having been founded in 1918. Beautifully simple in its creation, the wine is a blend of four of the top crus, or vineyards and has been consistently and spectacularly successful for decades.
In the charts above and below we have compared various well-regarded vintages of a similar era. These vintages are very good and very scarce, two of the most important factors for investors as they are squirreled away by the canniest collectors and prices have been rising. They are still a fraction of their Burgundian cousins however and we have no issue with recommending a buy, particularly the ’07 and the ’10, the cheapest relative value bets here:
Tasting notes, courtesy of Vinous Media:
2007: Mascarello’s 2007 Barolo shows just how compelling this vintage can be, even now. Sensual, layered and totally voluptuous in the glass, the 2007 shows the more flamboyant side of Barolo. I find the wine’s voluptuous, engaging personality impossible to resist. Sure, 2007 is not a classic vintage, but when a wine is this good, I say: Who cares?
2010: The 2010 Barolo is one of the most striking, hauntingly beautiful wines I have ever tasted here. Mysterious and slow to show its cards, the 2010 impresses for its inner perfume, sweetness and exceptional overall balance. Today the striking fruit and classic, austere elements of the vintage take turns in dominating the wine's balance. The 2010 was always magnificent in barrel. It is equally spectacular from bottle. Readers who can find the 2010 should not hesitate. Ideally I wouldn't dream of touching a bottle until age 15 or so, although I doubt I will personally have the discipline to follow my own advice!
The 2007 is the cheaper option from a classic vintage and the 2010 is the turbo charge version from the all-conquering 2010 vintage. Both are recommended.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-03-07
In terms of reputation Screaming Eagle is the ne plus ultra of American wines, the equivalent of Petrus on the Right Bank, Romanee-Conti on the Cote de Nuits and Conterno Monfortino in Piedmont.
The prices of the wine varies from £2240 per bottles up to £2600 per bottle for the vintages of 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, but over the last two years it has been the 2009 and 2011 that have made the greatest gains, with 37.9% and 42.7% respectively. Double digt growth seems to be the norm on a CAGR basis.
The 100 point vintages of 2010 and 2007 are roughly £3600 per bottle, and have gown at a slower rate in the last two years, suggesting again that there is better vakue to be had in the 97 to 99 point bracket currently.
Current market levels puts the 97 point ’09 at £2602 a bottle and the 94 point ‘11 at £2461 per bottle. These prices are at a premium of £350 and £200 respectively to the 97 point 2013 and 98 point 2014, which would seem a little illogical. Hard to see a justification for a discount for equivalently scored wines. As the chart below shows, the 2011 in particular seems over-priced and the more recent vintages would seem to offer greater upside potential.
Trying to compare Screaming Eagles with other US wines is a rather thankless task as it operates on a different pricing level entirely to every other wine in California. There are several things you can say about it in isolation, however:
- There is no vintage values at less than £2000 a bottle, and many tip the scales at over £3500 per bottle
- Three pack OWCs are the norm – almost all stock available comes in this format
- It has the highest average Parker score over the last twenty years of any wine in the world except Conterno Monfortino
- No more than 700 cases (12 pack equivalent) are made in any vintage.
It would seem logical to suggest for the medium to long term that younger, higher point scoring vintages offer the greatest potential for capital growth. Not for the faint hearted, of course, but the fundamentals of extremely small production, a style that will see each vintage improve for a minimum of 25 years form bottling and a brand that has cemented itself as the epitome of great modern Californian wine making make this a wine that needs to be considered very seriously as an unavoidable component in any top drawer cellar…
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-19
Price: £32,000 per 12
WO average score: 97
Robert Parker: 98
Neal Martin: 98+
There is a compelling case to be made for Petrus ’98. Petrus is Petrus and trades in a rarefied right bank bracket, with the only other occupant being Le Pin. Their following is immense, with prices to match yet these have now been sustained for decades. These are properly premium wines.
’98 was very much a right bank vintage and only 2,400 cases of Petrus were produced compared the normal 4,000. The wine is now approaching its prime and satisfies the most important of current investment criteria, namely scarcity, in spades.
Some of Neal Martin’s (admittedly more exuberant) notes:
"The 1998 Petrus is the best Right Bank of the decade and here, against the 2000 and 2001, there is no contest. The aromatics are a masterclass of control and precision, yet it is also one of the most intense bouquets that has ever been produced at the estate. This is a "complete" Petrus that is magnificent in every department."
It makes one wonder why it has not been accredited the full 100 points but maybe Neal has reverted to being more conservative in his scoring having left WA? Parker and Robinson are equally effusive about the wine at various points over the course of its development, but Martin’s notes are by far the most recent. The slightly ridiculous premium that the 2000 vintage enjoys means that Petrus ’00 currently trades at £45,000 per 12. It is interesting to note that since the summer of last year the ’98 has begun to outperform the ’00 and both the WO150 Index and the WO Bordeaux Index. We think this is set to continue.
The tasting notes and the scarcity together with the more regular analysis of MPS (market price versus score) and RVS (relative value score), as viewed in the charts above and below, further the investment case.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-12
Cos d’Estournel 2009
Robert Parker: 100
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 100
Neal Martin: 91
Jancis Robinson: 16.5,17,17.5
Price: £2,400 per 12
The crux of the matter here appears to be the U.S. of A. versus the U. of K. Big Bob wades in with the magic three digits (100 points) whilst Mr. Martin offers a much more modest 91 points. Our very own Mr. Martin’s words on this wine are not fit to publish. L. P-B. doffs her cap to her superior with another magic number whilst Jancis sways in a middle sort of division, yet she correctly describes it as famously controversial. So, it’s fair to say: the jury is out!
The early intelligence (thanks go to Bordeaux Index) and the biggest story from their last week’s ten years on tasting is that Cos was the big disappointment (Chateau Margaux was the star performer). Looking at the chart below there appears to be a huge amount more potential downside than upside, the ’09 being more expensive than anything in its peer group and what is the score?? Everyone seems to like the ’16, especially Mr. Martin, not best known and normally associated with magic numbers but attributing it to this vintage with gusto! Likewise, the ’10, not perfection but very highly rated. Both trading at close to £1,700 per 12- without the controversy.
The 2009 price has substantially underperformed the Wine Owners Bordeaux Index, perhaps because it has always split the camps:
RP: One of the greatest young wines I have ever tasted, the monumental 2009 Cos d’Estournel has lived up to its pre-bottling potential. The wine hits the palate with extraordinary purity, balance and intensity as well as perfect equilibrium, and a seamless integration of tannin, acidity, wood and alcohol. An iconic wine as well as a remarkable achievement, it is the greatest Cos d’Estournel ever produced.
LP-B: Wow—the full-bodied palate bursts with powerful, hedonic black fruit preserves and spices, completely coating the mouth with decadent fruits that are perfectly framed by very firm yet very ripe, grainy tannins and bold freshness, finishing with a veritable firework display of floral, spice and red fruit notes. Just stunning.
NM: It is glossy, dare I say almost “slutty”. The palate is medium-bodied with grippy tannins on the entry. There is good weight and volume to this wine, the Merlot more expressive than elsewhere with a lovely rich, decadent, weighty finish that is a hedonistic treat, but chooses not to translate the terroir of this great property. I prefer the 2010!
JR (a selection gleaned from 3 different notes): A youthful wine still dominated by tannins. First-growth structure. Bone dry. Classic-issimo. Went downhill in the glass however. Exotic but overdone. Alcohol intrudes. Awkward tasting experience. The tannins stick out. This continues to be a difficult wine. Famously controversial wine, one of the latest picked. Hugely ripe on the nose with a streak of very astringent dryness on the end. Scrubbing brush effect. A very extreme wine that strikes me as pretty brutal at the moment. Doesn't follow through; just stops on the palate rather than delivering any lingering finish. But it may all come together eventually...?
Recommendation: Sell ’09 and switch into the far less controversial vintages ’00, ’05, ’10 or ’16.
Relative value chart with other highly rated vintages of Cos d’Estournel:
If you’re looking to buy some Lafite
, the 2010 vintage
looks like reasonable value, given we are talking the brand that is Lafite. It achieves the highest WO score of 98
(extraordinarily high given our rather ‘mean’ methodology) and it comes from the vintage that is establishing itself as the pinnacle of the modern era, perhaps to be challenged by ’16 but that hasn’t been confirmed as yet.
If we brought the price down to the level we can actually offer at (£7,225 net per 12 as opposed to the chart price of £7,475), the Relative Value Score rises to above 6 – cheap for Lafite!
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-11
Sassicaia 2006, 94 points £2,050 per 12
Sassicaia 2009, 96 points £1,590 per 12
Sassicaia 2010, 94 WO points £1,430 per 12
Sassicaia 2015, 97 points £1,750 per 12
Sassicaia 2016, 100 points (WA) £2,700 now, released yesterday at £1,270!
I am now editing this blog originally written on the 25th January as yesterday saw the release of Sassicaia ’16
. Monica Larner of the Wine Advocate
heaped the magical three digit score and a boat load of praise meaning it sold out in seconds (she does hold sway!). I would have enjoyed being a fly on the wall of Armit’s office yesterday as the phones must have been red (pun intended) hot! If, like she says it will, the ’16 turns out to be just as good and valuable as the ’85 vintage, 31 years from now, that would yield a most respectable 8% CAGR
(compound average growth rate). One should take note, however, that the price of the ’85 more than doubled in the last three years so buyer’s beware! I repeat my recommendations from before.
When we began researching Sassicaia for this post we began by thinking it would turn out be a good and solid egg. We were right. Other than the stratospheric and legendary 100 point ’85, now c.£30,000 per 12, up from £12,000 three long years ago, Sassicaia is a really steady holding. It’s a wine that gets drunk readily, is approachable at a younger age than most investment grade wines and doesn’t tend to get dumped in a downturn.
The 2015 is another exception to this generalisation, not least because last November it claimed the coveted Wine Spectator’s ‘Wine of the Year’ 2018, causing the price to do this:
It is interesting to note that the Wine Advocate’s upgrade from 91-93 to 97 points in February 2018 had no lasting impact on price – do they not influence this corner of the market, we wonder?
In an efficient market, there’s a great short to mid-term switch play here, selling '15 and buying the cheaper and older ’09 or ’10 vintage where supply is shrinking faster. This is the wine market though, and trades like these not always play out. Judging from the price of the ’06, there is sufficient upside to these two vintages to suggest a purchase, especially if conservative is your thing!
The younger 2013 also looks cheap (but much more plentiful):
Buy: 2009, 2010, 2013
Trading sell: 2015
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-05
Pichon Lalande 2010
WO Score: 94
Price: £1,300 per 12
Probably our most popular and current investment theme, derived from the outperformance generated by Burgundy in the last few years, is scarcity. This recommendation has not been generated as a result of scarcity, it comes from the old-fashioned premise that good old-fashioned merchants used to be famed for – this is bloody good stuff, it’s under-priced and it’s going up - trust us!
Looking at the chart below the relative value doesn’t appear out of kilter relative to its peer group but that is using a WO generated averaged score (of current ratings) of 94 points. Based on various tastings since the Wine Advocate et al rated this wine, members of the team here have consistently and with conviction rated this wine above its peer group and above its current critic scores. To be fair Mr. Parker, back in February ’13, allowed himself some room for improvement with a 95+. The WO team would apply the plus sign very happily.
For the sake of argument if we were to award the Pichon Lalande a score of 97 and run that number through the relative value equation, the score would be a far more enticing 30, almost as cheap as Leoville Barton – and Pichon Lalande is never as cheap as Leoville Barton!
On top of this, 2010 is becoming widely accepted as the greatest vintage of the modern era. The five first growths from 2010 currently average £7,500 per 12 and Pichon Lalande ‘82, possibly the greatest vintage the estate has produced until this one, is £7,800 per 12, so there seems plenty of room for upside!
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-02-04
As a couple of recent posts have alluded to, we think some of the really top end Burgundy has reached heights that might not be sustainable in the short to medium term. Over the last decade or so the Burgundy market has been the star performer:
But in the last year it has gone into interstellar overdrive:
Obviously Burgundy, and particularly the greatest names, are in short supply and the desire to have a slice of the action has had a dramatic impact on prices. But can this continue - THAT is the question!? This commentator has already sold some of the spectacularly performing big names and is reallocating the assets lower down the ladder, especially where prices are yet to move.
Last week we compared values of Clos de Beze 2010 from the Domaines of Rousseau, (Bruno) Clair and Drouhin-Laroze, all very closely rated, to find their respective price ratios to be 1 Rousseau for 13 Clair for 28 Drouhin-Laroze. This highlights the incredible disparity between certain growers and of course there will always be premia for certain names. However, the gaps have widened and some of the differentials are unjustified - opportunities abound, inter Burgundy and elsewhere. This quick comparison of a few random names suggests the currently less fashionable 1st Growth Bordeaux and even serious Rhone could be worth a look:
Please get in touch if you would like to discuss the Burgundian Conundrium and see if we can make sense of it!?
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2019-01-31
Domaine Bruno Clair, Chambertin, Clos de Beze 2010
WO Score: 94
Price: £3,120 per 12
Note from Burghound (93-96 points):
A spicy, pure and admirably refined nose offers up notes of cool, layered and an impressively broad mix of wild red berries, stone and underbrush hints. The textured and almost painfully intense broad-shouldered flavors possess deep reserves of tannin-buffering dry extract as well as the same extraordinary finishing depth that the nose hints at. A knock-out but this is expressly built to age and the flavors and tannic spine are so tightly wound that it's pointless to buy this if you do not intend to age it for at least 10 to 12 years first.
Domaine Drouhin-Laroze, Chambertin, Clos de Beze 2010
WO Score 96
Price: £1,410 per 12
Note from Burghound (93-95):
A spicy, ripe, elegant and admirably pure nose offers up notes of anise, sandalwood and clove that add breadth to the floral, earth and stone-suffused aromas. There is the same superb breadth to the rich, intense and tension-filled full-bodied flavors that possess excellent power and drive on the seductively textured, muscular and classy finish.
Both the Drouhin-Laroze and the Bruno Clair expressions of Clos de Beze from the blockbuster 2010 look attractive at current levels with the less fashionable Drouhin-Laroze really standing out - there are a few cases in the market too. Both get great scores across the board from the critics and have not kept pace with the sizzling Burgundy index (Drouhin-Laroze in light blue) over the last three years:
Whilst seeking high quality wines that have lagged the Burgundy market, these two have popped up as good candidates. More and more market watchers will be searching for this type of opportunity, so some catch up is expected. Neither have hit their drinking stride yet but when the scarcity kicks in, will it be possible to source them when they do? I doubt it.
Although it is not comparing like with like, Rousseau’s take on this famous piece of dirt, (rated at 94-97) at £40,000 per 12, is probably fully valued and I for one would be making a switch! Putting it another way you can buy 28.5 bottles of the Drouhin-Laroze product for one of dear Monsieur Rousseau’s! The Clair to Rousseau ratio a more modest 1:13, but still!?
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